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US inflation data and tariff agreement with China gave investors hope; now it is up to the Federal Reserve to make the next move. Find out more in our analysis and forecast for global indices for 15 May 2025.

US indices forecast: US 30, US 500, US Tech

• Recent data: the US CPI was 2.3% in April
• Market impact: hopes for a soft landing in the economy are growing, which is generally positive for the broad market, especially for cyclical and consumer companies

Fundamental analysis

US annual inflation eased to 2.3% in April, below forecasts of 2.4%, marking the lowest level since the beginning of 2021, while the core CPI remained at 2.8%, with both indices up 0.2% month-on-month. The softer-than-expected data reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further – the US dollar has weakened – and boosts hopes for an earlier rate cut if tariffs do not derail the disinflation process.

Investors will now focus on Friday’s PPI data and the Federal Reserve’s comments for clues on the future policy direction. Technology and growth stocks, alongside real estate, may get a boost from lower financial costs.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 approached the 42,535.0 resistance level. As long as the 37,060.0 support level remains intact, the price may get stuck in a sideways range. However, it should be noted that the index recouped losses since early April 2025 during a local correction.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 30 price forecast:

• Pessimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout below the 37,060.0 support level could push the index down to 35,060.0
• Optimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout above the 42,535.0 resistance level could drive the index to 43,890.0

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index rose for the first time this year. After the longest winning streak, prices are correcting while remaining within an uptrend. The support area has shifted to the 5,585.0 mark, with the resistance level yet to form after a breakout above resistance at 5,700.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 5,585.0 support level could send the index down to 5,355.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 5,700.0, the index could climb to 5,960.0

US Tech technical analysis

The US Tech index broke above the 20,180.0 resistance level, while the support area shifted to 19.980,0. The price consolidated above the 200-day Moving Average, which is typically seen as a technical sign of a renewed uptrend.

Scenarios for the US Tech index price forecast:

• Pessimistic US Tech forecast: a breakout below the 19,980.0 support level could push the index down to 19,150.0
• Optimistic US Tech forecast: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 21,180.0, the index could rise to 21,365.0

Asian index forecast: JP 225

• Recent data: Japan’s current account totalled 3.68 trillion JPY in April
• Market impact: a weaker yen traditionally supports exporters’ stock prices

Fundamental analysis

The surplus of 3.678 trillion JPY means that Japan earned nearly 3.7 trillion JPY more in net exports and investment income in April than it spent on imports and payments to non-residents. This decline from 4.061 trillion in March indicates a relatively weaker external demand or higher import costs.

Investors see the current account surplus as a margin of safety for the economy as it shows that the country earns more from the world than it spends. A narrowing surplus raises questions about the pace of global demand and may increase market volatility, especially in exporter stocks and securities.

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index broke through a medium-term sideways channel. Despite a prevailing downtrend, the price breached the 38,130.0 resistance level. This breakout could be false. A new resistance level formed at 38,765.0, with the trend reversing upwards.

The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:

• Pessimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout below the 36,590.0 support level could push the index down to 33,820.0
• Optimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout above the 38,765.0 resistance level could propel the index to 39,625.0

European index forecast: DE 40

• Recent data: the German CPI came in at 2.1% in April
• Market impact: such robust data indicates a stronger economy and may boost market confidence

Fundamental analysis

The data in line with forecasts and easing annual inflation reduce the pressure on the ECB to tighten credit, creating favourable conditions for rate-sensitive stocks (technology and real estate). A moderately steady CPI allows banks to expect to maintain current margins without sharp interest rate fluctuations.

Stable inflation strengthens the euro against other currencies, potentially making exporters slightly less competitive, but with moderate CPI growth, the negative effect will be insignificant. Overall, the CPI data remains in a comfortable area for the market, as it does not require the ECB to take emergency actions and supports balanced and moderately bullish dynamics of German stocks.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 stock index broke above the 23,435.0 resistance level, with the support line shifting to 23,045.0 and new resistance forming at 23,625.0. A new growth cycle could begin, with the potential to reach a new all-time high.

The following scenarios are considered for the DE 40 price forecast:

• Pessimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout below the 23,045.0 support level could push the index down to 22,245.0
• Optimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout above the 23,625.0 resistance level could boost the index to 24,345.0

Summary

Most global stock indices experience upward momentum, with the US 500 rising for the first time since the beginning of 2025. The US 30 failed to break above the resistance level. Amid easing inflation in the US and the EU, investors will be awaiting comments from regulators – the Fed and the ECB. In addition, all eyes will be on talks between the US and the EU on reciprocal tariffs.

The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at 4.5%, allowing for a potential cut only in 2026. China and the US held constructive talks on reducing mutual tariffs. More details in our analysis and forecast for 13 May 2025.

US indices forecast: US 30, US 500, US Tech

• Recent data: The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at 4.5%
• Market impact: shares of technology companies and other issuers dependent on the discounting of future profits may come under pressure

Fundamental analysis

Maintaining the key rate at the current level along with a resilient economy creates a mixed backdrop. Citing tariffs as a growing inflationary driver increases uncertainty for companies linked to global supply chains (automotive, semiconductors, industrial equipment). Shares of such firms may experience pressure due to potentially higher production costs and lower margins.

A longer period of high rates supports banks’ net interest margins, often leading to relative strength in financial sector stocks, especially those of large universal banks. Investors viewed the progress between the US and China positively. However, relations with the EU have become a new point of tension.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index rose by more than 13% from the April lows, but the overall trend remains downward. As long as support at 37,060.0 holds, prices may get stuck in a sideways corridor; a sustained upward trend is possible only after breaking through the resistance at 42,535.0.

Scenarios for the US 30 index price forecast:

• Pessimistic scenario for US 30: if the support level at 37,060.0 is breached, prices may fall to 35,060.0
• Optimistic scenario for US 30: if the resistance level at 42,535.0 is broken, prices may rise to 43,890.0

US 500 technical analysis

For the US 500 index, the resistance at 5,700.0 was broken. After the longest series of gains this year, prices are correcting while remaining within an upward trend. The support zone has shifted to the 5,585.0 mark.

Scenarios for the US 500 index price forecast:

• Pessimistic scenario for US 500: if the support level at 5,585.0 is breached, prices may fall to 5,355.0
• Optimistic scenario for US 500: if the price consolidates above the previously broken resistance at 5,700.0, prices may rise to 5,960.0

US Tech technical analysis

The US Tech index broke through the resistance level at 20,180.0, while the support zone settled around 19,980.0. Prices managed to rise above the 200-day moving average, which is typically seen as a technical sign of a renewed upward impulse. If prices fall back below the 200-day moving average and remain there, this would confirm weakening buyer strength and could trigger a return to downward movement.

Scenarios for the US Tech index price forecast:

• Pessimistic scenario for US Tech: if the support level at 19,980.0 is breached, prices may fall to 19,150.0
• Optimistic scenario for US Tech: if the price consolidates above the previously broken resistance at 21,180.0, prices may rise to 21,365.0

Asian index forecast: JP 225

• Recent data: Japan’s au Jibun Bank Services PMI for May preliminarily stands at 48.7
• Market impact: a strengthening services sector supports revenue prospects for retail, transportation, tourism, and fintech, which may boost demand for shares of these companies

Fundamental analysis

PMI growth indicates a demand recovery in the economy, which may support the rise of stocks in domestically focused sectors – such as services, tourism, transportation, and consumption. Stronger data may also fuel speculation about possible policy tightening by the Bank of Japan, which in turn strengthens the yen and puts pressure on exporters.

The figure creates a favourable environment for the stock market, especially for domestic industries, but investors may also factor in the effect of yen fluctuations. In addition, Japan is influenced by US trade policy and increasing tariffs.

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index broke through a medium-term sideways channel. Despite a prevailing downtrend, the resistance level at 38,130.0 was broken. This breakout could be false. If so, the downward trend will likely continue; otherwise, one could speak of a possible start of an upward trend.

Scenarios for the JP 225 index price forecast:

• Pessimistic scenario for JP 225: if the support level at 36,590.0 is breached, prices may fall to 33,820.0
• Optimistic scenario for JP 225: if the price consolidates above the previously broken resistance at 38,130.0, prices may rise to 39,625.0

European index forecast: DE 40

• Recent data: Germany’s Industrial Production for March increased by 3%
• Market impact: such strong data indicates a strengthening economy and may boost market participants’ confidence

Fundamental analysis

A 3% rise in March (against a forecast of +0.9% and a previous reading of -1.3%) points to a sharp recovery in manufacturing activity after the February downturn. This may result from improved external demand, supply chain normalisation, or domestic stimulus (e.g. investments in the defence industry).

Manufacturing, engineering, and automotive companies (such as Siemens, BMW, Volkswagen) may receive additional support. Improvements in macroeconomic indicators increase the likelihood that German firms will post strong quarterly results, potentially pushing DE 40 higher.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 stock index broke through the resistance at 23,435.0, while the support zone shifted to 23,045.0. Prices reached a new all-time high and still hold potential for further growth. However, to confirm the sustainability of the uptrend, a new resistance level must form.

Scenarios for the DE 40 index price forecast:

• Pessimistic scenario for DE 40: if the support level at 23,045.0 is breached, prices may fall to 22,245.0
• Optimistic scenario for DE 40: if the price consolidates above the previously broken resistance at 23,435.0, prices may rise to 24,345.0

Summary

Most global stock indices show upward movement, but a confirmed trend reversal has yet to appear in the US 30. Market optimism largely stems from the easing of trade relations between the US and China. At the same time, after the Federal Reserve maintained the key rate at 4.5% and signalled it may hold it there until 2026, investors will focus on future regulatory cues about the central bank's monetary policy direction.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt addressed media staff on Friday, walking back some of the tone and market interpretations of President Donald Trump's early morning tweets.

EURNZD: ⬆️ Buy – EURNZD reversed from support level 1.8845 – Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9200 EURNZD currency pair recently reversed from the support level 1.8845 intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction.

Another loss-making quarter, a disappointing Q2 2025 forecast, and weakening demand for AI-enabled processors continue to weigh on Intel’s stock, putting the share price at risk of falling below the 19 USD mark.

In Q1 2025, Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) reported revenue of 12.67 billion USD and adjusted earnings per share of 0.13 USD, exceeding analysts’ expectations. However, under GAAP standards, the company posted a loss of 0.19 USD per share – marking its fourth consecutive quarter in the red. Robust demand for the older Raptor Lake processors supported the results, while newer AI-enabled lines – Meteor Lake and Lunar Lake – faced sluggish demand and pressure on profitability. Intel shares dropped by more than 8% due to concerns over narrowing margins amid the launch of Lunar Lake, the weak forecast, and the slow adoption of the new processor architectures.

The article examines Intel’s stock performance, the reasons behind its decline, and whether it presents a buying opportunity. It includes a fundamental analysis of Intel’s financial report and a technical analysis of INTC shares, forming the basis for Intel’s 2025 stock forecast.

About Intel Corp.

Intel Corp. is a US technology company specialising in developing and producing microprocessors, chipsets, GPUs, systems-on-a-chip (SoC), network controllers, modems, flash memory, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chipsets, and sensors for vehicle automation. Founded in 1968 by Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce, Intel introduced the world’s first microprocessor in 1971, laying the groundwork for its future success.

In the same year, Intel held its initial public offering (IPO) on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol INTC, becoming one of the first companies in the emerging technology sector.

Challenging times for Intel: the dot-com bubble, the pandemic, and competitive struggles

The company faced its first major setback during the dot-com bubble in 2000, as demand for PCs and servers plummeted. Management increased production, not predicting the downturn, leading to an oversupply, and falling prices. As a result, Intel was compelled to scale back production, cut costs, and develop a recovery program. Following the crisis, the technology market rebounded, reviving demand for Intel’s products and helping the company recover from the downturn.

The next major test came in 2021. A surge in demand for semiconductor products during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 drove increased production, leading to market oversaturation and a subsequent drop in prices, which, in turn, hit Intel’s revenue. However, the company’s challenges did not end there.

In 2023, Intel faced fierce competition from AMD and NVIDIA, whose products outperformed Intel’s processors and graphics solutions in both performance and energy efficiency. A key factor behind this loss of competitiveness was the previous management’s focus on business strategy and financial performance at the expense of engineering investment, leading to delays in transitioning to more advanced 7- and 5-nanometre technologies – already mastered by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM), which produces chips for NVIDIA and AMD.

Investors’ reaction to the company’s difficulties was obvious – they sold off Intel shares. During the 2000 dot-com crisis, the company’s stock plunged by 82%. The current situation is similar, with the stock losing 70% of its value between its peak in April 2021 and November 2024.

Intel is increasing investments in new factories and equipment upgrades for foundry operations to restore investor confidence and defend its market share. This strategy temporarily reduces profitability (the company ended 2024 with a loss). Intel’s management plans to lay off up to 15% of its workforce to reduce costs.

Intel Corp. Q3 2024 report

Intel released its Q3 2024 report on 31 October, revealing the following key financial indicators:

• Revenue: 13.3 billion USD (-6%)
• Net income (loss): 2.0 billion USD compared to 1.7 billion in Q3 2023
• Earnings (loss) per share: 0.46 USD compared to 0.41 USD in Q3 2023
• Gross Margin: 18.0% (-2,780 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.3 billion USD (-7%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.3 billion USD (+9%)
• Network and Edge: 1.5 billion USD (+4%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.4 billion USD (-8%)
• All other: 1.0 billion USD (-28%)

In her comments on the report, Intel’s CEO, Pat Gelsinger, noted that the company’s profitability was impacted by expenses previously mentioned during the Q2 2024 results discussion. However, the actual results exceeded expectations. In Q3, Intel took significant steps to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and strengthen its market competitiveness. A substantial part of the workforce reduction program was also implemented, with plans to lay off an additional 15% of employees by the end of 2024.

The financial results were also impacted by write-offs of outdated products from the COVID-19 period, as these could not be integrated into current products.

Management had an optimistic outlook for Q4 2024. Revenue was projected in the 13.3-14.3 billion USD range, with adjusted EPS at 0.12 USD, reinforcing the possibility of the company returning to profitability.

Despite the current losses, Intel is encouraging shareholders to retain their shares and has paid a Q3 dividend of 0.12 USD per share.

Intel Corp. Q4 2024 report

On 30 January, Intel published its Q4 2024 report with the following key figures:

• Revenue: 14.3 billion USD (-7%)
• Net income (loss): (126) million USD compared to income of 2.7 billion in Q4 2023
• Earnings (loss) per share: (0.03) USD compared to earnings of 0.63 USD in Q4 2023
• Gross margin: 32.9% (-650 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 8.0 billion USD (-9%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.4 billion USD (-3%)
• Network and Edge: 1.6 billion USD (+10%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.5 billion USD (-13%)
• All other: 1.0 billion USD (-20%)

For Q1 2025, Intel projected revenue in the 11.7-12.7 billion USD range and a loss of 0.27 USD per share. The gross margin was expected at 36%, down from 51% in Q1 2024.

Q4 2024 marked the first financial quarter under the interim co-presidency of David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus following the departure of Pat Gelsinger. Michelle Holthaus noted that the last quarter represented a positive step forward, as Intel exceeded its forecasts for revenue, gross margin, and EPS. She emphasised the progress in executing the cost-cutting plan aimed at supporting the company’s recovery. David Zinsner stated that the plan had a positive impact, contributing to improved business efficiency, return on invested capital, and the company’s overall profitability.

Intel continues to move towards its foundry model by establishing Intel Foundry as a separate subsidiary. For Q1 2025, revenue from this division was expected to remain in line with Q4 2024 levels.

Despite positive elements in the company’s report, market participants reacted negatively to its release due to the anticipated decline in Intel’s revenues.

Intel Corp. Q1 2025 earnings report

On 25 April, Intel published its report for Q1 2025, which ended on 29 March. The key figures are presented below, compared with the same period in 2024:

• Revenue: 12.7 bn USD (0%)
• Net income (loss): 887 mn USD versus a loss of 437 mn USD in Q1 2024
• Loss per share: 0.13 USD versus a loss of 0.09 USD in Q1 2024
• Gross margin: 39.2% (-590 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.6 bn USD (-8%)
• Data Centre and AI: 4.1 bn USD (+8%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.7 bn USD (+3%)
• All other: 0.9 bn USD (+47%)

Intel’s Q1 2025 report delivered mixed results. On the one hand, the company exceeded revenue expectations; on the other, it reported a net loss of 821 million USD – its fourth consecutive quarterly loss.

Management issued a cautious forecast for Q2 2025. Revenue is expected to range between 11.2 billion and 12.4 billion USD, with a potential loss per share of up to 0.32 USD. These figures came in below Wall Street expectations. CFO David Zinsner attributed this caution to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, including trade tensions and potential new tariffs, which affected customer behaviour at the start of the year.

Under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel has embarked on a large-scale restructuring. Key measures include reducing management layers to speed up decision-making, introducing a four-day office working week to boost productivity, and cutting operating expenses to 17 bn USD in 2025 and 16 bn USD in 2026.

Nevertheless, the company continues to face serious challenges in the AI segment, where competitors Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) maintain a strong lead. Intel’s AI initiatives – including its Gaudi accelerators – have so far failed to meet expectations, while plans for its Falcon Shores GPU have been scaled back.

Intel’s AI bet is falling short

Intel has been investing heavily in AI-enabled processors. However, demand for these chips has turned out to be significantly lower than expected. Consumers are increasingly opting for older models without AI functionality, such as the Intel Raptor Lake series. The reasons are straightforward – lower prices, proven performance, and a lack of tangible benefits from AI features in real-world applications.

As a result, Intel has faced an unexpected shortage of its older chips, with its manufacturing capacity currently focused on producing new AI processors. The company has had to acknowledge that sales of its latest Meteor Lake and Lunar Lake models are falling well short of expectations.

Historically, Intel has also struggled in the AI space. Previous acquisitions of AI startups such as Nervana and Habana Labs failed to produce meaningful breakthroughs. Now led by Lip-Bu Tan, the company is shifting its focus towards in-house development of AI solutions.

By contrast, AMD is prioritising high-performance processors with selective AI integration. It is launching Ryzen AI Max (Strix Halo) chips, which combine powerful CPUs and GPUs with AI capabilities aimed at applications, including gaming devices.

In the server segment, AMD has made significant strides with its Instinct MI300X accelerators, which have received strong endorsements from companies like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) for their impressive AI performance.

Intel continues to promote its AI-integrated chips, but market demand remains weak – users still prefer older, proven solutions, as they have yet to see significant benefits from the newer models. This has led to an unexpected shortage of legacy models and is forcing Intel to revise its production plans. Meanwhile, AMD remains focused on performance gains, integrating AI only where it adds clear value – a strategy helping it maintain its competitive edge.

Expert forecasts for Intel Corp. stock for 2025

• Barchart: one out of 36 analysts rated Intel Corp. stock a Strong Buy, 31 a Hold, four a Sell, and five a Strong Sell. The highest target price is 62 USD, while the lowest is 18 USD
• MarketBeat: of 31 experts, one assigned a Buy rating, 25 gave a Hold recommendation, and five a Sell. The highest target price is 34 USD, while the lowest is 14 USD
• TipRanks: one out of 33 professionals issued a Buy recommendation, 28 a Hold, and four a Sell. The highest target price is 28 USD, while the lowest is 14 USD
• Stock Analysis: one of 31 experts rated the stock a Buy, 26 a Hold, one a Sell, and three a Strong Sell, with the lowest target price of 14 USD. The highest target price is 36 USD

Intel Corp. stock price forecast for 2025

On the weekly timeframe, Intel’s stock is trading within a downward channel and testing support at 19 USD. On the MACD indicator, a break below this support would trigger a convergence, signalling a potential upward price movement. Based on the current Intel stock performance, the potential price movements in 2025 are as follows:

The primary forecast for Intel shares anticipates a break below the 19 USD support, followed by a decline to the lower channel line at 12 USD. A rebound from this level would push the INTC price up to 26 USD. This scenario is the most likely, given the company’s weak Q1 2025 results and cautious Q2 2025 outlook, which includes the possibility of an increased loss per share of up to 0.32 USD.

The optimistic forecast for Intel stock projects growth from the current level, with a break above the resistance at 26 USD. In this case, INTC could rise to the trendline at 40 USD.

Risks of investing in Intel Corp. stock

When investing in Intel Corp. stock, it is necessary to consider factors that could negatively affect the company’s future revenue. The key factors are outlined below:

• Manufacturing challenges: Intel faces challenges in manufacturing its products, particularly as it transitions to more advanced microtechnologies. Delays in adopting new practices and overspending on manufacturing projects may lead to higher costs without a corresponding increase in revenue
• Contract business challenges: Intel’s ambition to become the second-largest contract chipmaker by 2030 faces challenges in attracting clients, intense competition from Samsung and TSMC, and risks associated with this partnership model, which requires significant investments with no guarantee of a return
• Loss of market share and competition: Intel’s traditional dominance in the PC market is diminishing due to reduced demand for these devices. Competition from ARM processors, particularly in mobile devices, servers, and data centres, threatens Intel’s income
• AI and data centre market: Intel is notably lagging in the AI chip industry, where NVIDIA and AMD hold a significant competitive edge. This has resulted in a loss of market share, particularly in the data centre segment, which is crucial for generating high-margin revenue
• Financial standing and investments: Intel reported negative EPS again, indicating financial difficulties. This situation could undermine investor confidence and affect the outlook for funding research and development necessary for further growth
• Suspended dividend payouts: the suspension of dividends, which had been in place since 1992, may discourage investors focused on stable income. Such financial restrictions could erode investor confidence and ultimately push the stock lower
• Geopolitical and economic factors: tensions between the US and China, a key semiconductor market, could negatively impact Intel’s business in this area. Additionally, the company’s global manufacturing presence is subject to serious geopolitical risks for several reasons

These factors collectively threaten Intel’s future earnings, potentially leading to a decline in revenue and higher unplanned expenses.