News

The US 500 is holding around 7,672 points, with the market conserving strength ahead of upcoming news.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• The US 500 remains within a broad ascending channel but is under short-term pressure
• Corporate earnings and the Consumer Confidence Index are in focus
• US 500 forecast for 25 August 2026: 7,608

US 500 fundamental analysis

The US 500 is trading around 7,672 on Tuesday. US stock index futures are little changed as investors await another batch of corporate earnings reports that could provide fresh signals about the health of the technology sector and consumer activity.

Today, the focus is on earnings from Intuit, Zoom, Semtech, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Macy’s. Particular attention will be paid to NVIDIA, which is due to report results on Wednesday. The report will be an important benchmark for assessing the resilience of demand related to artificial intelligence.

On the macroeconomic front, the US Consumer Confidence Index is due on Tuesday, followed by the PCE price index on Wednesday. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will speak at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

On Monday, the Dow Jones gained 0.26%, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.76%. The market came under pressure from a broad sell-off in shares of companies linked to AI infrastructure.

The US 500 outlook is moderate.

US 500 technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the US 500 has entered a correction phase after rising towards the 7,800 area and is now consolidating around 7,672. The broader uptrend remains intact, although the index is under short-term pressure following a series of lower highs. Buyers need to gain a foothold above the nearest resistance level to regain control.

The first resistance level is located at 7,736, with the next one at 7,799. The nearest support level lies at 7,608, followed by 7,544 and 7,481. MACD remains in negative territory, but downward momentum is gradually stabilising. The Stochastic has turned higher and risen towards 70, indicating an attempt at recovery, although there is still no full signal for continued growth yet.

The base trading idea is to buy after a sustained move above 7,736, with a buy stop at 7,737, a take profit at7,799, and a stop loss at 7,697. Potential profit is about 62 points with a risk of 40 points, giving a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.6. The trade idea remains valid until 27 August 2026, provided the US 500 does not consolidate below 7,608.

Summary

The US 500 has come under local pressure and has yet to initiate a reversal, although sellers are no longer as strong. The US 500 forecast for today, 25 August 2026, suggests a slide towards 7,608 before the index turns higher.

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Further rise is in favor in EUR/USD with 1.1510 support intact. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1621 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1613) will solidify the case that fall from 1.2081 has completed as a three wave correction at 1.1323. Further rally would then be seen to 61.8% retracement at […]

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The combination of a sharper than usual seasonal drop in asking prices and employers holding firm on both hiring and firing adds to the case for a cautious Bank of England, which has kept rates on hold since December 2025. Weak housing momentum alongside soft hiring intentions points to a consumer backdrop that remains fragile, a dynamic likely to weigh on sterling and keep gilt yields anchored to dovish rate expectations into official labour data due Tuesday. The London-versus-north divergence in house prices also reinforces a narrative of an economy healing unevenly rather than broadly, which could complicate the BoE's read on underlying demand. Markets are likely to treat both data points as reinforcing rather than new information, given confidence readings have sat near post-pandemic lows for some time.

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Britain's housing market and labour market are both losing momentum at once, sharpening the case for a cautious Bank of England.

Summary:

• Rightmove reported UK asking prices fell 2.0% in the four weeks to August 8, sharper than the 10-year average August fall of 1.3% and the steepest since 2018, with prices down 1.0% year on year.
• London posted the sharpest annual price fall at 3.1%, while prices in the north of England continued to rise, and Rightmove cut its 2026 price growth forecast to flat or as much as a 2% fall.
• Buyer demand rose 5% since Prime Minister Andy Burnham took office on July 20 but remained 10% below year-ago levels, while the average two-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.09% from 4.92%.
• A separate CIPD survey found UK employer confidence near its weakest levels outside the pandemic, with the net employment balance holding at plus 9 and private-sector hiring intentions at plus 11, both close to record lows outside the pandemic.
• Only 57% of private-sector employers plan to recruit in the next three months, a joint post-pandemic low, though redundancy levels have not risen, prompting the CIPD to describe a "low-hire, low-fire" labour market.
• Median expected pay rises held at 3% for more than two years, with 31% of employers reporting hard-to-fill vacancies and 14% expecting significant recruitment difficulties over the next six months.

Britain's economic soft patch deepened on Monday, with fresh data pointing to a housing market under pressure and a labour market still reluctant to hire. According to Rightmove, average asking prices for newly listed homes fell 2.0% in the four weeks to August 8, a sharper drop than the 10-year average August fall of 1.3% and the steepest such decline since 2018. On an annual basis, asking prices were down 1.0%, the biggest yearly fall since December 2023, with London leading the decline at 3.1% even as prices in the north of England continued to rise. A summer slowdown and a 12-year high in the number of homes for sale weighed on the market, though buyer demand did pick up 5% following Prime Minister Andy Burnham's arrival in office on July 20, even as it remained 10% below year-ago levels. The average two-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 5.09% from 4.92% a month earlier, prompting Rightmove to cut its 2026 price growth forecast to a range of flat to a 2% decline, citing geopolitical uncertainty, higher mortgage rates and October's budget as key risks.

Separately, a survey from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development showed British employers remain stuck in a low-hire, low-fire pattern, with confidence near its weakest levels outside the pandemic. The CIPD's net employment balance held at plus 9, close to its lowest level outside the pandemic, while private-sector hiring intentions stayed at plus 11, matching a record low outside the pandemic era. Just 57% of private-sector employers plan to recruit in the next three months, also a joint post-pandemic low, though redundancy levels have not risen, prompting the CIPD to describe the labour market as low-hire, low-fire rather than one shedding jobs outright. Median expected pay rises held at 3% for more than two years, while 31% of employers reported hard-to-fill vacancies and 14% expect significant recruitment difficulties over the next six months. The CIPD called for lower hiring costs and greater support for youth employment.

Together, the two surveys land a day ahead of official labour market data and add to the picture the Bank of England is weighing as it considers its next move on interest rates, which have been on hold since December 2025.

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Still a month out from the next meeting for the Bank of England:

The USDJPY pair ended Friday’s trading near 157.87. Trading volatility has declined significantly. Discover more in our analysis for 10 August 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair has completed its correction and may enter a sideways range
• Since the start of the week, the yen has fallen by more than 2%
• USDJPY forecast for 10 August 2026: 159.75 or 160.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY pair ended last week’s trading near 157.87. The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY currently appears mixed, but with a moderate bias towards yen strengthening and a decline in the pair. The main factor that continues to support the dollar is the substantial interest rate differential. The Federal Reserve keeps its interest rate in the 3.50–3.75% range, while the Bank of Japan’s rate is around 1.0%. This gap continues to make the dollar relatively more attractive.

In recent weeks, the situation has begun to shift in favour of the Japanese currency. Weak US labour market data reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, putting pressure on the dollar. At the same time, support for faster interest rate hikes is growing within the Bank of Japan, with expectations for a policy tightening as early as September increasing after the July meeting. This points to a potential narrowing of the interest rate gap between the US and Japan.

The USDJPY forecast is cautious.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair continues its corrective rise. This is unlikely to reverse the broader downtrend, but in the short term, it creates entry points for long positions.

The nearest support level is located at 157.80. A rebound from this mark would allow the pair to continue its recovery towards 159.75, with the potential for further growth to 160.00. Support levels lie at 157.80 and 156.62, with the key one at 155.71. A breakout below the latter would signal a continuation of the downtrend.

On the daily chart, the main resistance and support levels remain at 163.95 and 155.15, respectively. There is a risk that the price could trade sideways between these levels for an extended period before further strengthening. However, if the current correction leads to a breakout above the 163.95 resistance level, the trend would turn bullish.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: range with a neutral-to-negative bias
• Key resistance levels: 159.75 and 160.00
• Key support levels: 156.62 and 157.80

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Limit)

A rebound from the 157.80 support level followed by further growth would confirm the corrective upward move in USDJPY.

• Take Profit: 159.75
• Stop Loss: 157.80

Alternative scenario (Buy Limit)

A breakout and consolidation above the 159.75 resistance level would confirm a corrective recovery after the pair’s sharp decline.

• Take Profit: 160.00
• Stop Loss: 157.70

Risk factors

The main risk factor for further USDJPY growth remains currency intervention. After the yen fell to multi-year lows, Japan and the US conducted a joint intervention to prop up the Japanese currency and stated that they were prepared to act again. Therefore, as the USDJPY rate approaches high levels, the likelihood of renewed action by the authorities may restrain dollar buyers.

Summary

The USDJPY pair continues to correct. The USDJPY forecast for today, 10 August 2026, suggests a rebound from the 157.80 support level, with the nearest upside target at 159.75.

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On a total-return basis, McDonald’s has climbed in 11 straight years. Now down almost 10% in 2026, The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look. Before we dive in, let’s make sure you’re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to…

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