News

Japan real wages fall again in December, clouding BoJ policy outlook

Posted on: Feb 09 2026

Japan’s December wage data showed improving nominal pay but another fall in real wages, keeping pressure on the BoJ to move cautiously after its December hike.

Summary:

  • Japan’s real wages fell 0.1% y/y in December, extending a year-long contraction

  • Nominal pay growth improved, but still lagged inflation enough to keep purchasing power negative

  • Overtime pay slowed, hinting at softer private-sector momentum

  • Real wages fell 1.3% in 2025, marking a fourth straight annual decline

  • Data muddies the policy signal for the Bank of Japan after December’s rate hike

Japan’s wage data for December delivered a familiar but awkward message for policymakers: nominal pay is improving, but not fast enough to restore household purchasing power.

Government data showed inflation-adjusted real wages fell 0.1% year-on-year in December, extending a contraction that has now persisted for 12 consecutive months. While the pace of decline was the slowest since early 2025, the continued erosion underscores how stubbornly consumer purchasing power remains under pressure.

Nominal wages did show firmer momentum. Total cash earnings rose 2.4% y/y to ¥631,986, a clear pickup from November’s revised 1.7% increase. Regular pay climbed 2.2% y/y, while special payments — largely winter bonuses — rose 2.6%, suggesting companies continue to offer one-off compensation to offset cost pressures.

However, the quality of wage growth remains mixed. Overtime pay increased just 0.9% y/y, down from 1.2% previously, a moderation that points to softer labour demand in parts of the private sector. Overtime trends are closely watched as a real-time gauge of corporate activity, and the slowdown hints at caution among employers despite stronger headline pay growth.

On a full-year basis, the picture remains weak. Real wages fell 1.3% in 2025, marking the fourth straight year of annual real wage declines since inflation began overshooting the BoJ’s 2% target in 2022. That prolonged squeeze on incomes continues to weigh on consumption and reinforces concerns about the durability of domestic demand.

For the Bank of Japan, the data complicates the policy debate. Wage dynamics are a cornerstone of the BoJ’s framework for assessing whether inflation can be sustained without extraordinary stimulus. While nominal pay and base salaries are trending higher, the failure of real wages to turn positive suggests the wage-price cycle remains incomplete.

Markets are therefore likely to interpret the report as cooling near-term pressure for additional rate hikes, following the BoJ’s 25bp increase in December to 0.75%. Policymakers have repeatedly stressed that sustained real income growth is essential before tightening policy further, and December’s figures offer little confirmation on that front.

In FX markets, the data reinforces a narrative of gradual normalisation rather than acceleration, limiting upside for the yen unless inflation or spring wage negotiations deliver a clearer upside surprise. In rates, it supports expectations that the BoJ will move cautiously, balancing rising nominal wages against still-fragile household purchasing power.

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Market impact

  • JPY: limited support as real wages remain negative; focus shifts to spring wage talks
  • JGBs: reinforces cautious tightening path, anchoring front-end yields
  • Equities: consumption-linked sectors still constrained by weak real incomes

Other data also out from Japan:

What's moving yen today;

  • Yen weaker early trade. Japan markets brace for renewed Takaichi trade after landslide win
  • Weak yen update: Japan election landslide Takaichi super-majority, revives yen pressure
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
China gold reserves climb further, buying continues for a 15th straight month

Posted on: Feb 08 2026

  • China gold reserves at the end of January 2026: 74.19 million troy ounces
  • In December 2025: 74.15 million troy ounces
  • China gold reserves value at the end of January 2026: $369.58 billion
  • In December 2025: $319.45 billion

Amid the surging run higher in prices to start the year, the value of China's gold reserves have jumped up significantly in January. That as they increase the total amount they hold by just a bit once more.

As a reminder, the numbers we're seeing above are just what is "officially" reported. There is a strong consensus that Beijing has been buying way more gold than what is being advertised here. Independent estimates from the likes of the World Gold Council suggest that China's actual holdings may be double what they are reporting.

So, make what you will of the numbers above. But if anything else, it does tell us a rather clear market trend. And that is central bank buying in gold continues to ramp up over the past two years.

Amid fiscal concerns in major economies alongside the de-dollarisation push, that will just continue to keep this driver active as central banks stick with gold buying.

Despite the sharp pullback in the past week or so, gold prices are still up nearly 15% for the year so far. The early selling in Asia yesterday was met with solid dip buying conviction, with gold ending nearly 4% higher on the day to $4,964.

The next big test for gold buyers remains trying to secure a firm break above $5,000 once more. The highs last week were thwarted near $5,100 with the daily close falling back under the big figure.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Australia manufacturing PMI hits five-month high as growth accelerates in January

Posted on: Feb 02 2026

Australia’s manufacturing sector started 2026 with stronger growth momentum, supported by rising orders, hiring, and improved confidence.

Summary:

  • Australia’s manufacturing sector expanded at a faster pace in January, marking a third consecutive month above the growth threshold.

  • New orders strengthened sharply, including the first rise in export demand in five months, lifting production momentum.

  • Employment growth accelerated to its strongest pace since early 2023 as firms responded to rising workloads.

  • Supply-chain frictions persisted, contributing to higher input costs and renewed selling price inflation.

  • Business confidence improved to its highest level in nearly four years, supported by a more optimistic demand outlook.

Australia’s manufacturing sector entered 2026 on firmer footing, with January PMI data pointing to a clear acceleration in activity and improving demand conditions. The latest survey results indicate that growth momentum has broadened across output, orders, employment, and purchasing, reinforcing signs that the sector is emerging from a prolonged period of subdued conditions.

The headline manufacturing PMI rose further above the 50 threshold in January, signalling a third consecutive month of expansion and the fastest pace of improvement in five months. Output growth strengthened as manufacturers reported a solid uplift in new business inflows, supported by both domestic demand and a renewed contribution from overseas markets. Notably, export orders expanded for the first time since late winter, suggesting external demand is beginning to stabilise after a prolonged lull.

Stronger order books prompted firms to lift production schedules and expand capacity. Employment levels rose at the fastest pace in almost three years, reflecting both higher current workloads and improved confidence in future demand. The increase in staffing helped manufacturers reduce outstanding work, easing some operational pressures even as activity picked up.

Purchasing activity also increased for a third straight month, broadly tracking the improvement in new orders. However, supply-side challenges remain a constraint. Manufacturers continued to report transport bottlenecks, port congestion, and material shortages, which led to further deterioration in supplier delivery times. While the pace of delays eased slightly, logistical disruptions contributed to slower inbound shipments and a further drawdown in input inventories. At the same time, delays to outbound deliveries resulted in an accumulation of finished goods stocks.

Cost pressures intensified at the start of the year. Higher raw material prices and ongoing supply constraints drove the fastest rise in input costs in nine months. In response, manufacturers passed some of these increases through to customers, lifting selling prices again in January. That said, both input and output price inflation remained below long-run survey averages, suggesting cost pressures, while rising, are not yet excessive.

Encouragingly, sentiment across the manufacturing sector improved markedly. Firms reported their strongest confidence in nearly four years, underpinned by expectations of firmer economic growth, improving market conditions, and planned business investment. Forward-looking indicators, including new orders and future output expectations, point to continued expansion in the months ahead, although supply constraints and inflation dynamics remain key risks to monitor.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.