News

Trump: I am increasing tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now

Posted on: Oct 26 2025

Trump is still crying about an ad that clearly captured how Ronald Reagan felt about tariffs. This is surely just some kind of squeeze to try to get a better tariff deal.

Canada was caught, red handed, putting up a fraudulent advertisement on Ronald Reagan’s Speech on Tariffs. The Reagan Foundation said that they, “created an ad campaign using selective audio and video of President Ronald Reagan. The ad misrepresents the Presidential Radio Address,” and “did not seek nor receive permission to use and edit the remarks. The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute is reviewing its legal options in this matter.” The sole purpose of this FRAUD was Canada’s hope that the United States Supreme Court will come to their “rescue” on Tariffs that they have used for years to hurt the United States. Now the United States is able to defend itself against high and overbearing Canadian Tariffs (and those from the rest of the World as well!). Ronald Reagan LOVED Tariffs for purposes of National Security and the Economy, but Canada said he didn’t! Their Advertisement was to be taken down, IMMEDIATELY, but they let it run last night during the World Series, knowing that it was a FRAUD. Because of their serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act, I am increasing the Tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

The Ronald Reagan Foundation was taken over by a MAGA board. The thing is, this is only going to bring more attention to the ad and Reagan's strong anti-tariff views, which he spoke of many times.

The market didn't care about him breaking off talks on Friday and isn't likely to care about this either. Notably, he doesn't really specify which tariffs he's talking about here. The USMCA tariffs are zero but a small portion of trade not covered by that is paying anywhere from 15-50%.

See for yourself how Reagan felt about tariffs:

Here's the ad:

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Approaching Critical Support Level

Posted on: Oct 24 2025

Introduction to AUDUSD The AUD/USD pair, often referred to by traders as the “Aussie,” represents the value of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. This currency pair is highly sensitive to commodity price fluctuations, particularly those related to Australia’s resource exports. Traders often use AUD/USD to gauge global economic conditions due to Australia’s role […]

The post AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Approaching Critical Support Level appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.

Remember that China has as much power as Trump to sway the market.

Posted on: Oct 23 2025

More fun digging through market internals and macro energy rising a bit.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

Eurointelligence.com at it again with drawing parallels between the current political environment and Zeitgeist with Germany’s Sturm und Drang (the post from October 20th) period of the late 18th century. Also, they have a piece on the implications of Italy’s “going grey”, as it has one of the oldest populations in Europe.

Stratechery has a post (for paid subscribers - it is a reasonably priced service) on a long-form interview on China’s capturing of rare earth and other minerals supply chains. But here is a free post from the IFP outlining how the US could mobilize a “warp speed” operation to break its reliance on China and build its own supply chains.

My friend and former colleague Peter Garnry with a post on the curse of dimensionality in finance, where overuse of variables has analysts drowning in information when a smaller subset of variables is likely superior for drawing signal from the noise.

A Fortune article (thanks PG for the heads up) asks whether OpenAI cofounder Andrej Karpathy just popped the AI bubble as he waxes skeptical on whether artificial general intelligence is possible within the next decade (still sounds extremely aggressive to believe it is possible at all, but some see it arriving far sooner than 2035). An authoritative voice to consider regardless - and here is a link to the full two-hour plus Dwarkesh Patel podcast where he weighs in on a number of AI topics.

Chart of the Day - 3M Company (MMM)

3M Company has an octopus of a product range, with a background in mining that has transitioned more to chemicals and materials and applications of these for industrial uses. They have around USD 25 billion in yearly revenue and a market cap of USD 88.5 billion, serving a myriad of end uses in “safety and industrial” (almost half the business), “transportation and electronics” and “consumer”. They have been weighed down in recent years by liability claims against their PFAS (“forever chemicals”) business which is about to be entirely wound down and a headphone product that was implicated in cases of hearing loss. The company is looking to to turn around back to a growing top-line next year, with their latest earnings report yesterday boosting shares a heady 7.7% as the turnaround plan is ahead of schedule on the earnings front.

Source: Saxo

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USD/JPY climbs to near 152.00 as Takaichi elected as Japan Prime Minister

Posted on: Oct 22 2025

The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers to six-day peaks near 151.90 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) after dovish Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan's Prime Minister.

NZD/USD gathers strength above 0.5700 after New Zealand’s CPI inflation data

Posted on: Oct 20 2025

The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.5730 during the early Asian session on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of consumer price inflation data.

Critical Week Ahead: EUR/USD Price Action and Inflation Data

Posted on: Oct 18 2025

Introduction to Euro / US Dollar The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) pair, or “Fiber,” is the most actively traded currency pair globally, serving as the benchmark for Forex trading. This pair reflects the exchange rate between the Eurozone and US Dollar, providing crucial insight into the relative health and monetary policy paths of the […]

The post Critical Week Ahead: EUR/USD Price Action and Inflation Data appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.

USD/JPY softens below 150.50 on Fed rate cut bets, ongoing US government shutdown

Posted on: Oct 17 2025

The USD/JPY pair loses ground to near 150.30 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as traders assess the prospects for US rate cuts and the impact on the economy of a protracted US shutdown.

EUR/USD surges above 1.16 on Fed dovish bets, trade-war woes

Posted on: Oct 16 2025

EUR/USD traded with gains on Wednesday, up by 0.35% and above the 1.1600 figure for the second straight day as the Greenback is pressured by firm expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the escalation of the trade-war between the US and China.

US 500 forecast: global trend sharply reversed to downward after a new round of the US-China trade war

Posted on: Oct 15 2025

The US 500 index has entered a downtrend, which could become medium-term. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

Recent data: the Michigan Index of Consumer Expectations fell to 51.2 in September
Market impact: the data has a negative impact on the US stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

On Thursday, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that starting from 1 December, foreign companies must obtain a licence to export any products containing more than 0.1% of rare earth metals sourced from China or produced using Chinese extraction, refining, magnet manufacturing, or recycling technologies. In response, the US intends to impose new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports in addition to all current tariffs, with effect from 1 November. The US government also plans to introduce export controls on any critical software.

For the US 500 index, these developments have a negative effect. At the same time, a statement from the US Treasury regarding the growing risk of a government shutdown has increased uncertainty for both businesses and households. A shutdown leads to partial suspension or slowdown of federal services, delays in contracts and payments to employees and contractors, and postponements of grants and loans. This temporarily dampens consumption and corporate revenues, particularly in industries reliant on government spending.

US Michigan Index of Consumer Expectations: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/michigan-consumer-expectations

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index is undergoing a correction after a decline, with the support level at 6,550.0 and the nearest resistance at 6,760.0. The most likely scenario remains further downside, with a target near 6,445.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout below the 6,550.0 support level could send the index down to 6,445.0
Optimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout above the 6,760.0 support level could propel the index to 6,865.0

US 500 technical analysis for 14 October 2025

Summary

The renewed trade conflict between the US and China has brought uncertainty back to the stock market. The additional pressure from the US government shutdown, which may drag on, further complicates sentiment. Investors are not receiving fresh economic statistics, as the responsible agencies are not working due to a lack of funding. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index will likely continue its decline towards 6,445.0.

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Weekly market recap & what's ahead - 13 October 2025

Posted on: Oct 14 2025

Weekly market recap & what's ahead 13 October (week of 6 to 10 Oct 2025)

Headlines & introduction

Markets were whipsawed last week as rising U.S.–China trade tensions culminated in a tariff shock on Friday. U.S. equities hit fresh records mid-week on AI-fueled optimism and dovish Fed signals, but reversed sharply into week’s end. Crypto saw a violent drawdown and rebound, while volatility spiked as macro risks collided with earnings season prep. Gold and silver surged, oil remained range-bound, and Treasury yields moved in tight ranges.

Equities

Tariffs, AI, and shutdowns drove equity swings. U.S. stocks hit records midweek before collapsing Friday. On October 7, AMD soared +24.9% on a supply deal with OpenAI, boosting AI names. Tesla added +5.5% ahead of an event tease. By October 10, sentiment reversed: S&P 500 fell −2.7%, Nasdaq −3.6%, and Dow −1.9% after Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. Europe was choppy—CAC 40 −1.4% (Oct 7) on French politics, DAX +0.9% (Oct 9) on steel tariffs, and DAX +0.1% (Oct 10) to a record. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei +1.8% (Oct 10) hit records, while China and Hong Kong slumped on chip restrictions.

Market pulse: Tariff tensions derailed a tech-led rally as investors braced for earnings season.

Volatility

Volatility spiked late as trade fears hit. The VIX dropped to 16.3 on October 9 as stocks climbed, but surged to 21.66 (+31.8%) on October 10 after Trump’s tariff threat. Short-term measures like VIX1D jumped double digits earlier in the week and soared again Friday, highlighting hedging demand. Despite the surge, traders described the move as orderly. SPX expected move into Friday close: ±140 points (±2.1%).

Market pulse: Calm gave way to a sharp repricing as trade headlines shattered complacency.

Digital assets

Crypto snapped back after liquidation-driven flush. Bitcoin hovered near $126k midweek before sliding to $114.7k on October 10, as Trump’s tariff threat triggered over $19B in liquidations. ETH followed, down to ~$4.1k. IBIT and ETHA posted large outflows: ETHA −7.9%, IBIT −3.7%. On the positive side, Luxembourg’s sovereign wealth fund announced a Bitcoin ETF allocation. Crypto-adjacent stocks like COIN −7.7% and MSTR −4.8% tracked sentiment.

Market pulse: A weekend selloff shook crypto, but policy shifts and ETF flows remain key drivers.

Fixed income

Yields rangebound amid data gaps and macro shifts. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields moved within a tight range, ending near 4.0%, helped by haven flows post-tariff shock. The bond market was closed October 13 for Columbus Day. Credit markets grew nervous: high yield spreads widened to 282 bps, the highest since August. In Europe, the France–Germany yield spread remained wide at 84–86 bps, reflecting political risk.

Market pulse: Shutdown-delayed data and geopolitical tension kept bonds in a holding pattern.

Commodities

Precious metals shine, oil treads water. Gold briefly broke $4,078, and silver spiked above $51.7 on Friday before retreating. Momentum was driven by FOMO, ETF flows, and short squeezes. Oil stayed soft: WTI hovered below $62, while Brent held near $65 amid easing Middle East risks. Copper dropped −5% on tariffs before rebounding in Asia.

Market pulse: Metals surged on macro fears and tight supply, while oil remained capped by demand concerns.

Currencies

JPY and CHF gained on safe-haven demand. The JPY briefly touched 153 before firming after Japan’s LDP leader pushed back on further yen weakening. The USD rallied early, with EURUSD hitting 1.1542, but eased later as traders unwound extreme bets. China supported the CNH, pushing USDCNH back below 7.13.

Market pulse: Trade risk revived haven demand, though central bank tone and politics remain key.

Key takeaways

U.S. stocks hit new highs midweek before plunging Friday on tariff news.
Volatility spiked, with VIX +31.8% on Oct 10 and SPX expected move ±2.1% into next week.
Bitcoin fell to $114.7k after a $19B liquidation but steadied Monday.
Gold reached $4,078; silver topped $51.7 in a historic short squeeze.
High yield spreads jumped to 282 bps; Treasury yields stayed rangebound.
JPY and CHF strengthened on safe-haven flows as USD momentum faded.

Looking ahead (week of 13–17 October 2025)

Earnings season officially begins, with Wall Street giants setting the tone. Tuesday brings results from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Citigroup, and Johnson & Johnson, followed by Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and ASML midweek. TSMC, Charles Schwab, and Interactive Brokers report Thursday, offering a read on chip demand and retail trading. The week closes with American Express and State Street—key for gauging consumer and institutional health.

Macro data remain hostage to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, delaying reports on retail sales, jobless claims, and inflation. Still, the NFIB small business optimism index (Tuesday) and homebuilder confidence (Thursday) will be watched for early economic clues. The Fed Beige Book (Wednesday) and speeches from Powell, Bowman, Miran, and Waller could refine expectations for further rate cuts.

Abroad, ASML’s and TSMC’s earnings will reveal the impact of trade restrictions, while China’s trade data will test the strength of its export resilience after new U.S. tariffs. In commodities, traders eye LME Week in London, where metals volatility and supply themes dominate discussions.

Crypto markets will watch ETF flows closely, especially if institutional demand recovers after last week’s selloff. Meanwhile, gold’s historic breakout could face its first real test—either consolidating or extending toward new records depending on macro risk appetite.

Market pulse: Earnings take center stage amid trade uncertainty, muted data flow, and lingering macro tension.

Conclusion

After a week defined by tariff shocks and a volatility reset, markets enter mid-October at a crossroads. The coming wave of bank and tech earnings will show whether fundamentals can offset geopolitical anxiety and policy paralysis. With volatility back and liquidity conditions tightening, investor focus shifts from momentum to durability. Defensive postures dominate for now—but as history shows, volatility also breeds opportunity for those positioned ahead of the turn.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.