News

JP 225 forecast: the index hits a new all-time high

Posted on: Oct 31 2025

The JP 225 stock index resumed its upward movement after a correction and reached a new all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: Japan’s national core Consumer Price Index came in at 2.9% in September
  • Market impact: the effect on the Japanese equity market is moderately negative

JP 225 fundamental analysis

Japan’s annual national core inflation accelerated to 2.9%, confirming that inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target. For the stock market, this is a two-sided signal. On the one hand, stable prices support revenues in sectors with strong pricing power, such as premium consumer goods and services. On the other hand, they increase the likelihood of a gradual monetary policy normalisation, which could lead to higher JGB yields and an increased discount rate. An additional risk is a stronger yen if market participants raise expectations for tighter monetary policy.

For the JP 225 index, the overall impact is neutral to mildly negative in the short term. Expectations of a more hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan may drive up local rates and yen volatility, often triggering a rotation from export-oriented sectors (automotive, electronics, industrial machinery) to domestically focused and defensive segments. However, if the BoJ maintains a cautious stance and the yen does not strengthen significantly, the report will have a moderate impact.

Japan’s inflation rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/inflation-cpi

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index has reached a new all-time high, although a short-term correction may follow. The global trend remains bullish. The support level is located at 48,425.0, while the resistance at 49,770.0 has been broken.

The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout below the 48,425.0 support level could send the index down to 46,370.0
  • Optimistic JP 225 scenario: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 49,770.0, the index could climb to 52,720.0
JP 225 technical analysis for 30 October 2025

Summary

Inflation in Japan at 2.9% confirms persistent price pressures above the Bank of Japan’s target, increasing the risk of further monetary tightening. Rising government bond yields and potential yen appreciation create a moderately negative short-term backdrop for the JP 225, with likely pressure on exporters and rotation towards defensive sectors. The next upside target for the JP 225 could be 52,720.0.

Open Account

US 30 forecast: the index hits new all-time highs for the third consecutive session

Posted on: Oct 30 2025

The uptrend in the US 30 index has strengthened, suggesting the potential for another record high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: the US manufacturing PMI preliminarily came in at 52.2 in October
  • Market impact: the data is moderately positive for the US stock market

US 30 fundamental analysis

The US manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.2, above the forecast of 51.9 and the previous reading of 52.0, indicating continued expansion in industrial activity. This serves as a pro-cyclical signal for the stock market, strengthening expectations for revenue growth and operating leverage in manufacturing and related sectors, lowering the perceived probability of a recession, and narrowing credit spreads. At the same time, stronger PMI readings can raise inflation expectations through employment and capacity utilisation, potentially pushing US Treasury yields higher.

For the US 30 index, the balance of factors appears moderately positive. With its heavy weighting in industrial, materials, and financial stocks, the index benefits from improving macroeconomic activity and a potential yield curve steepening, which supports bank margins. If yields remain stable or rise only modestly, valuation multiples for value stocks and exporters could increase.

US manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index has reached a new all-time high, forming an uptrend. The 47,165.0 resistance level has been broken, while support is located near 46,475.0. It is difficult to say how long this trend will last.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 46,475.0 support level could push the index down to 4,565.0
  • Optimistic US 30 scenario: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 47,165.0, the index could advance to 48,755.0
US 30 technical analysis for 29 October 2025

Summary

The rise in US manufacturing PMI to 52.2, above the forecast and prior levels, is a pro-cyclical signal that improves expectations for revenue growth and operating leverage in real-economy sectors. This provides short-term support for the US 30 index, which has a high concentration of industrial, materials, and financial stocks. Economic data is still unavailable due to the ongoing government shutdown. The next upside target could be 48,755.0.

Open Account

Trump: I am increasing tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now

Posted on: Oct 26 2025

Trump is still crying about an ad that clearly captured how Ronald Reagan felt about tariffs. This is surely just some kind of squeeze to try to get a better tariff deal.

Canada was caught, red handed, putting up a fraudulent advertisement on Ronald Reagan’s Speech on Tariffs. The Reagan Foundation said that they, “created an ad campaign using selective audio and video of President Ronald Reagan. The ad misrepresents the Presidential Radio Address,” and “did not seek nor receive permission to use and edit the remarks. The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute is reviewing its legal options in this matter.” The sole purpose of this FRAUD was Canada’s hope that the United States Supreme Court will come to their “rescue” on Tariffs that they have used for years to hurt the United States. Now the United States is able to defend itself against high and overbearing Canadian Tariffs (and those from the rest of the World as well!). Ronald Reagan LOVED Tariffs for purposes of National Security and the Economy, but Canada said he didn’t! Their Advertisement was to be taken down, IMMEDIATELY, but they let it run last night during the World Series, knowing that it was a FRAUD. Because of their serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act, I am increasing the Tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

The Ronald Reagan Foundation was taken over by a MAGA board. The thing is, this is only going to bring more attention to the ad and Reagan's strong anti-tariff views, which he spoke of many times.

The market didn't care about him breaking off talks on Friday and isn't likely to care about this either. Notably, he doesn't really specify which tariffs he's talking about here. The USMCA tariffs are zero but a small portion of trade not covered by that is paying anywhere from 15-50%.

See for yourself how Reagan felt about tariffs:

Here's the ad:

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
Remember that China has as much power as Trump to sway the market.

Posted on: Oct 23 2025

More fun digging through market internals and macro energy rising a bit.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

Eurointelligence.com at it again with drawing parallels between the current political environment and Zeitgeist with Germany’s Sturm und Drang (the post from October 20th) period of the late 18th century. Also, they have a piece on the implications of Italy’s “going grey”, as it has one of the oldest populations in Europe.

Stratechery has a post (for paid subscribers - it is a reasonably priced service) on a long-form interview on China’s capturing of rare earth and other minerals supply chains. But here is a free post from the IFP outlining how the US could mobilize a “warp speed” operation to break its reliance on China and build its own supply chains.

My friend and former colleague Peter Garnry with a post on the curse of dimensionality in finance, where overuse of variables has analysts drowning in information when a smaller subset of variables is likely superior for drawing signal from the noise.

A Fortune article (thanks PG for the heads up) asks whether OpenAI cofounder Andrej Karpathy just popped the AI bubble as he waxes skeptical on whether artificial general intelligence is possible within the next decade (still sounds extremely aggressive to believe it is possible at all, but some see it arriving far sooner than 2035). An authoritative voice to consider regardless - and here is a link to the full two-hour plus Dwarkesh Patel podcast where he weighs in on a number of AI topics.

Chart of the Day - 3M Company (MMM)

3M Company has an octopus of a product range, with a background in mining that has transitioned more to chemicals and materials and applications of these for industrial uses. They have around USD 25 billion in yearly revenue and a market cap of USD 88.5 billion, serving a myriad of end uses in “safety and industrial” (almost half the business), “transportation and electronics” and “consumer”. They have been weighed down in recent years by liability claims against their PFAS (“forever chemicals”) business which is about to be entirely wound down and a headphone product that was implicated in cases of hearing loss. The company is looking to to turn around back to a growing top-line next year, with their latest earnings report yesterday boosting shares a heady 7.7% as the turnaround plan is ahead of schedule on the earnings front.

Source: Saxo

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].
This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex