Weekly market recap & what's ahead
13 October (week of 6 to 10 Oct 2025)
Headlines & introduction
Markets were whipsawed last week as rising U.S.–China trade tensions culminated in a tariff shock on Friday. U.S. equities hit fresh records mid-week on AI-fueled optimism and dovish Fed signals, but reversed sharply into week’s end. Crypto saw a violent drawdown and rebound, while volatility spiked as macro risks collided with earnings season prep. Gold and silver surged, oil remained range-bound, and Treasury yields moved in tight ranges.
Equities
Tariffs, AI, and shutdowns drove equity swings. U.S. stocks hit records midweek before collapsing Friday. On October 7, AMD soared +24.9% on a supply deal with OpenAI, boosting AI names. Tesla added +5.5% ahead of an event tease. By October 10, sentiment reversed: S&P 500 fell −2.7%, Nasdaq −3.6%, and Dow −1.9% after Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. Europe was choppy—CAC 40 −1.4% (Oct 7) on French politics, DAX +0.9% (Oct 9) on steel tariffs, and DAX +0.1% (Oct 10) to a record. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei +1.8% (Oct 10) hit records, while China and Hong Kong slumped on chip restrictions.
Market pulse: Tariff tensions derailed a tech-led rally as investors braced for earnings season.
Volatility
Volatility spiked late as trade fears hit. The VIX dropped to 16.3 on October 9 as stocks climbed, but surged to 21.66 (+31.8%) on October 10 after Trump’s tariff threat. Short-term measures like VIX1D jumped double digits earlier in the week and soared again Friday, highlighting hedging demand. Despite the surge, traders described the move as orderly. SPX expected move into Friday close: ±140 points (±2.1%).
Market pulse: Calm gave way to a sharp repricing as trade headlines shattered complacency.
Digital assets
Crypto snapped back after liquidation-driven flush. Bitcoin hovered near $126k midweek before sliding to $114.7k on October 10, as Trump’s tariff threat triggered over $19B in liquidations. ETH followed, down to ~$4.1k. IBIT and ETHA posted large outflows: ETHA −7.9%, IBIT −3.7%. On the positive side, Luxembourg’s sovereign wealth fund announced a Bitcoin ETF allocation. Crypto-adjacent stocks like COIN −7.7% and MSTR −4.8% tracked sentiment.
Market pulse: A weekend selloff shook crypto, but policy shifts and ETF flows remain key drivers.
Fixed income
Yields rangebound amid data gaps and macro shifts. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields moved within a tight range, ending near 4.0%, helped by haven flows post-tariff shock. The bond market was closed October 13 for Columbus Day. Credit markets grew nervous: high yield spreads widened to 282 bps, the highest since August. In Europe, the France–Germany yield spread remained wide at 84–86 bps, reflecting political risk.
Market pulse: Shutdown-delayed data and geopolitical tension kept bonds in a holding pattern.
Commodities
Precious metals shine, oil treads water. Gold briefly broke $4,078, and silver spiked above $51.7 on Friday before retreating. Momentum was driven by FOMO, ETF flows, and short squeezes. Oil stayed soft: WTI hovered below $62, while Brent held near $65 amid easing Middle East risks. Copper dropped −5% on tariffs before rebounding in Asia.
Market pulse: Metals surged on macro fears and tight supply, while oil remained capped by demand concerns.
Currencies
JPY and CHF gained on safe-haven demand. The JPY briefly touched 153 before firming after Japan’s LDP leader pushed back on further yen weakening. The USD rallied early, with EURUSD hitting 1.1542, but eased later as traders unwound extreme bets. China supported the CNH, pushing USDCNH back below 7.13.
Market pulse: Trade risk revived haven demand, though central bank tone and politics remain key.
Key takeaways
- U.S. stocks hit new highs midweek before plunging Friday on tariff news.
- Volatility spiked, with VIX +31.8% on Oct 10 and SPX expected move ±2.1% into next week.
- Bitcoin fell to $114.7k after a $19B liquidation but steadied Monday.
- Gold reached $4,078; silver topped $51.7 in a historic short squeeze.
- High yield spreads jumped to 282 bps; Treasury yields stayed rangebound.
- JPY and CHF strengthened on safe-haven flows as USD momentum faded.
Looking ahead (week of 13–17 October 2025)
Earnings season officially begins, with Wall Street giants setting the tone. Tuesday brings results from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Citigroup, and Johnson & Johnson, followed by Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and ASML midweek. TSMC, Charles Schwab, and Interactive Brokers report Thursday, offering a read on chip demand and retail trading. The week closes with American Express and State Street—key for gauging consumer and institutional health.
Macro data remain hostage to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, delaying reports on retail sales, jobless claims, and inflation. Still, the NFIB small business optimism index (Tuesday) and homebuilder confidence (Thursday) will be watched for early economic clues. The Fed Beige Book (Wednesday) and speeches from Powell, Bowman, Miran, and Waller could refine expectations for further rate cuts.
Abroad, ASML’s and TSMC’s earnings will reveal the impact of trade restrictions, while China’s trade data will test the strength of its export resilience after new U.S. tariffs. In commodities, traders eye LME Week in London, where metals volatility and supply themes dominate discussions.
Crypto markets will watch ETF flows closely, especially if institutional demand recovers after last week’s selloff. Meanwhile, gold’s historic breakout could face its first real test—either consolidating or extending toward new records depending on macro risk appetite.
Market pulse: Earnings take center stage amid trade uncertainty, muted data flow, and lingering macro tension.
Conclusion
After a week defined by tariff shocks and a volatility reset, markets enter mid-October at a crossroads. The coming wave of bank and tech earnings will show whether fundamentals can offset geopolitical anxiety and policy paralysis. With volatility back and liquidity conditions tightening, investor focus shifts from momentum to durability. Defensive postures dominate for now—but as history shows, volatility also breeds opportunity for those positioned ahead of the turn.