News

Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week on a positive footing, breaking out of last week’s sideways momentum after peaking at an all-time high near $3,675 on Tuesday.

As the XBR/USD chart shows, Brent crude opened this week’s trading around $65.70, but today the price is near $66.80 (around +1.7%).

Oil is being pushed higher by geopolitical factors, including:→ Israel’s strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar;→ Trump’

The USDCAD pair is on hold. The market is ready for a correction, but mostly favours the US dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 8 September 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The USDCAD pair halted its rise and is consolidating
• Investors increasingly expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates next week
• USDCAD forecast for 8 September 2025: 1.3854 and 1.3879

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate paused its growth and declined to 1.3833 on Monday.

Last week ended under pressure for the CAD after weak labour market data. The Canadian economy lost 65.5 thousand jobs in August, while expected to add 10 thousand new jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 7.1%, the highest since May 2016, excluding the pandemic period. The weak figures boosted expectations that the Bank of Canada will continue its easing cycle.

The probability of a key rate cut on 17 September is now estimated by the market at 98%, compared to 75% before the report. Recall that the last rate cut was in March, down to 2.75%.

Another pressure factor came from the oil market. WTI crude fell by 2.5% to 61.87 USD per barrel amid growing expectations of increased supply. This is especially important for Canada as a major exporter of raw materials. Developments in the US also influenced the pair: weak labour data raised expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, which generally limited the dollar’s growth against other currencies.

The forecast for USDCAD is mixed.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the USDCAD H4 chart, after declining from the 1.3920-1.3930 area in late August, the price found support near 1.3758 and bounced upwards. Currently, the pair is consolidating around 1.3830. The nearest support level is at 1.3815, with key support at 1.3758. Resistance lies in the 1.3854-1.3879 area. A breakout above it could send the pair back towards the highs near 1.3920-1.3930.

Technical indicators show a mixed picture. Bollinger Bands are widening, reflecting rising volatility, while the price is holding near the upper boundary of the channel, signalling local buyer advantage. The Stochastic has turned down from overbought territory, pointing to a possible short-term correction, while MACD remains above zero, confirming persistent bullish momentum.

In the near term, the pair is likely to remain within the 1.3815-1.3879 range, with a breakout in either direction determining the next move.

Summary

The USDCAD pair has corrected and is waiting for new drivers. The USDCAD forecast for today, 8 September 2025, suggests a return to the 1.3854 resistance level and further to 1.3879.

Open Account

It's a bull market in many markets at the moment but certainly not in oil, which is likely to get more bad news on Sunday.

Initial reports about Saudi Arabia pushing for a further production hike circulated on Friday and lowered crude by $1.51 but it's likely to fall even more if/when the hike is delivered.

Reuters reports that Eight OPEC+ countries will likely hike output but probably less than in October, as summer driving season ends. The group has added 2.5 mbpd this year in a steady stream quota jumps since April, likely under pressure from the Trump administration.

The risk is that sub-$60 oil prices cripple new drilling in the US shale industry. There are already signs of that as the US drilling rig count has plunged even further this year.

Since US crude is such a short-cycle and decline rates so high, that's an ominous sign for 2026 US production and will very likely mean a backfire of the 'drill, baby, drill' Trump admin talking point.

OPEC is still holding back 1.65 mbpd as part of regular production curbs and not the 'voluntary' ones they finished unwinding with last month's announcement.

"Talks are focusing on unwinding that whole cut in gradual monthly increments," two sources quoted by Reuters said. They differed on the volume of crude that could return from 135K bpd to 350K bpd.

In the macro picture, the drop in oil prices is a good thing for short-term inflation and should help to counteract tariff price pressures but below $60 (and likely even $70) is like holding a balloon underwater.

Update: Two Reuters sources now say that OPEC+ has agreed in principle to at least 135k bpd.

WTI crude oil: ⬆️ Buy – WTI crude oil broke the resistance level 64.00 – Likely to rise to resistance level 66.00 WTI crude oil recently broke the resistance level 64.00 intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily Falling.