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Weekly Market Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA, NFP, and Corporate Earnings

Posted on: May 05 2026

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of
JPY intervention! And, can magazine covers open the Strait of Hormuz?

Posted on: May 02 2026

Will the US throw Japan a helping hand on the yen?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

The magazine cover old saw. The Economist magazine cover (dated May 2) that everyone is passing around as the holy grail for a turn lower in crude oil prices. So the editorial staff of the Economist have magic powers? Apparently so!

For The FX Trader The FX Trader piece from today, rounding up the week’s action, the JPY intervention and the focus for next week, as well as the latest trend status across G10, CNH and metals.

How much should one pay for SpaceX shares when they IPO? The investment valuation sage Aswath Damodaran takes a thorough look at how to value SpaceXand suggesting the rumoured USD 1.75 trillion valuation is too expensive, not that it won’t trade there and not that Damodaran isn’t interested in the company, provided it trades at an appealing price.

Wait - Brent Johnson still likes the US dollar? Every appearance sees him trotting out the same viewpoints - Johnson is very much a booster for the prospects of American power and global hegemony-ish, especially via the dominance of the US dollar, but he is still worth listening to for his thoughts on global markets.

The AI Apocalypse - is it closer than we think? There are lots of articles like this one demonstrating how AI agents are already “exhibiting self-preservation instincts” and talking up the profound risks, even existential ones, for humanity. Are we too complacent? Will it take an AI agent robbing my bank account or my identity or sabotaging my internet-linked car (thankfully, my car is too old for that, at least I hope it is) for me to feel real fear. Either that or something large scale that happens in the public sphere?

Significant middle east oilfield capacity has been shut in - how much will be permanent? Some are worried that this Hormuz Strait closure may have destroyed significant production capacity permanently for some of the fields that have been shut in due to the inability to export through the Hormuz Strait. If these fields are compromised for years, or even permanently, we will see the world moving on the more reliance on natural gas, electrified (EV) transport, etc., but there will be a sustained disruption for the near term until global alternative supply or demand can respond. It is worth noting that crude oil supplies are on the decline already, with booming natural-gas-liquids (liquids that condensate from gas production and are very useful) growing so rapidly that overall liquids production is still rising slightly.

Yeah, we’ve heard about the SaaSpocalypse, but the Apple-pocalypse is a new one. Here is Naval Ravikant making the case for both - with the latter triggered by the “commoditization of the OS”. I don’t know who is right about all of this, but it does feel like profound disruption is afoot for incumbent giants in many areas that are enjoying too fat profits for their rapacious monopolies.

Chart of the Day - USDJPY

USDJPY saw a chunky sell-off intraday yesterday from the 160.50+ levels that traded just ahead of the official “final” intervention warning from Japan’s currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura, which according to sources also saw actual intervention and dro ve price action a much as five figures lower to below 156.00. A second flurry of apparent intervention this morning saw the pair testing the lows briefly. If we look at where USDJPY trades, we are still less than a percent from the bottom of the 158.00-160.00 range that corralled most of the price action in recent weeks. The next steps for a proper breakdown are 1) a close below the daily Ichimoku cloud, which is around 156.26. Then we have the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the rally off the lows that comes in near 155.30. The 200-day moving average near 154.11 currently could weigh at some point, but the bigger breakdown level is the significant pivot low near 152.10. To the upside, if the price action backs up on a daily close above 158.00, it’s a real sign that the market wants to put up a fight with Japan’s officialdom on its intent to strengthen the yen.

Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].
This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex
US 30 forecast: the index is correcting, but growth continues

Posted on: Apr 30 2026

The US 30 index is completing a correction, with a new all-time high highly likely. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: US composite PMI came in at 52.0 in April
  • Market impact: the data is positive for the stock market

US 30 fundamental analysis

The US S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 52.0, coming in above the forecast of 50.6 and the previous reading of 50.3. This is a moderately positive signal for markets, as the reading above 50.0 indicates expanding business activity in the US economy. A stronger result suggests US businesses remain resilient despite high interest rates, inflationary pressures, and consumer caution. For the US 30 index, this can support demand, as it includes large, mature companies that are sensitive to overall economic conditions.

For the US 30, a strong PMI release could be viewed positively, as it reduces fears of a sharp US economic slowdown. If activity continues to expand, investors may expect steadier revenue and earnings for large industrial, financial, and consumer companies. This is especially important for the US 30, since it reflects traditional sectors rather than just technology companies.

US composite PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/composite-pmi

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index has completed its correction after the start of the uptrend. The nearest support level formed at 48,315.0, with the resistance level at 49,770.0. Prices are currently moving towards all-time highs. If the current momentum continues, the next upside target could be 50,535.0.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 48,315.0 support level could push the index down to 47,415.0
  • Optimistic US 30 scenario: if the price consolidates above the breached resistance level at 49,770.0, the index could climb to 50,535.0
US 30 technical analysis for 29 April 2026

Summary

Overall, the current data is moderately positive for the US 30 index and the US stock market. It indicates the US economy remains resilient and activity is growing faster than expected. This can support interest in large-cap stocks, especially in industrials, financials, and consumer sectors. However, the next market reaction will depend on how investors balance this positive signal against interest rate expectations. If the strong PMI is interpreted as healthy growth without increasing inflationary pressures, the market could continue to rise, with the next potential upside target at 50,535.0.

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Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.
The cognitive dissonance is getting painful here.

Posted on: Apr 29 2026

Higher highs for energy and risk sentiment can only coexist for so long?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo’s piece on X-Energy as it IPO’d last week. Ruben covers not just the X-Energy IPO, but a number of other players in the nuclear energy space. And here is a YouTube channel with X-Energy posts. Still not sure if I believe there is enough U 235 for scaling these kinds of power plants sufficiently to meaningfully power our economy - it makes up only about 0.7% of naturally occurring uranium ores and requires enormous processing overhead. Others want to go the thorium route, which has its own challenges.

What to do after the AI-crash?

Here’s a bold take that not only anticipates the crash of the AI bubble, but is a sort of public policy playbook on how to make the best of the situation out of the post-bubble wreckage for the public at large.

Mike Green on the death of the active manager before the passive tsunami.

And the dangerous implications, with a great sidebar on the recent silly AllBirds shoe-company-to-AI-infrastructure pivot pump-and-dump.

On the transition to post-social media.

Well, the “social” long ago left social media, but it is interesting to consider the level of disintermediation/disruption of incumbent platforms that might be possible in the age of AI.

The latest Hussman Funds report - amazing they keep it going.

Hussman continues to cling on to “the fundamentals mean something” campe years after the passive dominance has made life endless difficult for rational actors in global markets. It’s an admirable project and I fear the day they are proven right, if that day ever comes. The last time they flashed the “expected annualized returns” was in one of their January reports, which put annualized forward returns at something like -5% (that’s yearly…for twelve years"). Can fundamentalists stay liquid as long as the market can stay irrational/passive-Ponzi?

The US mid-term election in November is going to be an awful spectacle

As both Democrats and Republicansmercilessly gerrymander voting districts to politically tilt the Congressional makeup in their states, which will also heavily impact the 2028 presidential election. Here’s an idea - stop it?

Michael Every points out Russia not “winning” - certainly not financially.

Chart of the Day - EURUSD

The EURUSD chart has conflicting short term and longer term technicals here. The local setup looks constructive for the bulls after the rally cleared the recent resistance above 1.1600 and then as buyers fully eliminated the reaction to the war in Iran by taking the price back to 1.1800 and above, around where the pair traded the weekend before the war broke out. And yet, in the bigger picture, that rally stopped short near the 61.8% retracement of the monster sell-off from the 1.2081 high to 1.1411 low, a sell-off that profoundly challenged the longer term bull trend, with that key turnaround Fibo still in place.

So for the short term bullish case: From here, bulls will need for the 1.1625-50 zone to hold ideally, with 1.1575 as a kind of last gasp area of support/downside swing level.

For the medium term bearish case: If the price action fails below the 1.1575 downward swing level, focus reverts to the cycle lows and to a possible “C-wave” that eventually focuses on 1.1200-1.1250, the “A-wave” correction of the huge former bull move having unfolded from 1.2081 to 1.1411.

For the longer term bull case. Recall that EURUSD cleared the long term 1.1200+ resistance line from 2023-24 in early 2025 and remains in longer term bull mode assuming the 1.1200-50 zone continues to support. I prefer to look at shorter- and medium term trends compared to these very long term technical situations.

 

Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].
This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex
Apple: an era ends, but what comes next?

Posted on: Apr 22 2026

Key takeaways

  • Tim Cook turned Apple into a compounding machine through iPhone scale, services growth, and massive share buybacks.

  • John Ternus now inherits a stronger Apple, but also one that needs a clearer hardware and artificial intelligence story.

  • The next era will be judged less by efficiency and more by whether Apple can still create products that feel new and necessary.

    • The end of one Apple, the start of another

    Apple is one of the most successful companies ever built. It started in a garage in 1976 with Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. Now, after more than a decade under Tim Cook, the company is preparing for another leadership change, and that makes this more than a corporate handover. It is a moment that invites investors to ask a bigger question: what does the next version of Apple look like in an age shaped by artificial intelligence, new hardware, and much higher expectations?

    Cook took over as chief executive officer, or CEO, in 2011 after Jobs. Since then, some critics have argued that Apple has become less radical and less inventive than it was in the Jobs years. That debate will probably never go away. What is much harder to debate is the shareholder outcome. Under Cook, Apple has delivered one of the great stock market runs of the modern era.

    By September, John Ternus, Apple’s current hardware chief, is set to take over as CEO. That points to the start of a new phase for the company, one where the old “think different” spirit may need to find a more modern shape. Apple now has to prove that it can adapt to the artificial intelligence race not only with software, but also with products people actually want to use.

    The Tim Cook years were less flashy, but hugely effective

    From a shareholder perspective, Tim Cook’s time at the top has been extraordinary. Since he became CEO in 2011, Apple’s share price has risen by more than 1,800%. Over the same period, the S&P 500, the broad US stock market index, returned a little over 450%. That is not just outperformance. That is domination with very neat spreadsheets.

    The financial story behind that success is quite straightforward. Since 2011, the iPhone has remained the core engine of the business. Apple generated just over 40 billion USD of iPhone revenue in 2011. Today, that figure is above 200 billion USD a year. Few products in corporate history have scaled with the same consistency, and even fewer have remained so central to a business for so long.

    That matters because Cook’s Apple did not need to reinvent the wheel every other year. Instead, it turned one hugely successful product into a global ecosystem, then kept improving, expanding, and monetising that ecosystem with remarkable discipline. It is not the most romantic version of innovation, but investors rarely complain when discipline comes wrapped in compounding.

    Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank

    The quiet force behind the share price

    There is another reason Apple’s stock has done so well under Cook, and it is a little less glamorous than a new product launch. Apple has generated enormous amounts of free cash flow, which is the cash left after the company has funded the investments needed to run and grow the business.

    From 2010 to 2022, Apple’s annual free cash flow rose from a little over 20 billion USD to more than 110 billion USD. That gave management unusual flexibility. Apple could keep investing in the business, while also returning a huge amount of capital to shareholders through share buybacks.

    Those buybacks matter more than many people realise. When a company reduces its share count over time, each remaining share represents a slightly larger claim on the business. In Apple’s case, that effect has been significant. Someone who owned 1% of Apple in 2012 would, with the same number of shares today, own roughly 1.8% of the company. That is a powerful tailwind, even if it does not make for a very exciting keynote presentation.

    So, from an investor’s perspective, the Cook formula has been clear. Scale the iPhone. Build a larger and richer services layer around it. Generate huge free cash flow. Use part of that cash to buy back stock. It is a very effective model, even if it lacks the theatre of the Jobs years.

    Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank, figures in USD billions.
    Why the leadership change matters now

    This is exactly why the transition to John Ternus matters. Apple’s problem is not that the Cook model failed. It is that the next decade may require a different balance. Under Cook, Apple became a master of optimisation. Under Ternus, it may need to become more ambitious again, especially in hardware.

    That does not mean Apple has produced nothing new in recent years. AirPods and Apple Watch have both been successful, and they are far from trivial. But it is also true that several bigger hardware ambitions never quite became reality. Projects such as an Apple car or a television set never turned into major products, while the recently launched Vision Pro augmented reality, or AR, headset is still far from proving itself as a mass-market success.

    Apple has also pushed more software-led extensions into the ecosystem, including Apple TV and Apple CarPlay. These are useful additions, but they do not fully answer the harder question investors are now asking. Where is the next major hardware category, and how does Apple make it feel essential in a world increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence?

    The appointment of Ternus, who currently leads hardware, suggests Apple understands that question very well. The company may decide that the next phase requires a little less emphasis on buybacks and a little more emphasis on investment. Compared with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet, Apple has spent far less on data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure. That may continue, but the Ternus era could also mark the beginning of a more assertive Apple, one that invests more heavily in future devices, tighter hardware and software integration, and what it calls Apple Intelligence.

    Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank, figures in billions.

    The real question for investors

    For long-term investors, this is what makes the story timely and relevant. Apple is not trying to recover from weakness. It is trying to evolve from a position of enormous strength. That is a much better problem to have, but it is still a real test.

    The next chapter will not be judged only on whether Apple can keep selling iPhones and expanding services. It will be judged on whether the company can still surprise people, shape new consumer habits, and turn artificial intelligence into something more tangible than a feature list. In other words, Apple now has to prove that operational excellence and bold product vision can still live in the same company at the same time.

    That is what makes this leadership shift so interesting. One era ends with Apple richer, larger, and more efficient than ever. The next one begins with a simpler challenge, at least on paper: to show that the world’s most polished machine can still dream a little.

    This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

     

    Ruben DalfovoInvestment StrategistSaxo Bank
    Topics: Equities Highlighted articles
    Forex Today: US/Iran Tensions Rise Ahead of Ceasefire Deadline, Knocking US Stocks - 20 April 2026

    Posted on: Apr 21 2026

    Iran/USA Ceasefire Expires Wednesday Morning; Prediction Markets Still Expect USA/Iran Deal in May, Ceasefire Extension This Week; US Military Attacks and Seizes Iranian Cargo Ship Near Hormuz; Iran Currently Refusing to Attend Pakistan Parley
    Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review)- 20-24th April

    Posted on: Apr 19 2026

    Newsquawk Week Ahead – 20-24th April: US-Iran ceasefire expiry, Warsh Hearing, Flash PMIs, US Retail Sales, UK Jobs, Inflation from Japan, UK, NZ and Canada...

    The post Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review)- 20-24th April appeared first on Forex Trading Forum.
    Top 3 trade ideas for 16 April 2026

    Posted on: Apr 17 2026

    Trade ideas for NZDUSD, GBPJPY, and EURUSD are available today. The ideas expire on 17 April 2026 at 8:00 AM (GMT +3).

    NZDUSD trade idea

    NZDUSD analysis shows that the market is not yet providing clear signs that the upward move is coming to an end. Although a short-term correction is possible, the overall bias for the pair remains positive, and the current pullback still fits within a correction phase without disrupting the broader uptrend. For this reason, buying at current levels appears unattractive in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio, while a pullback towards the 0.5900 area offers a more comfortable entry point. The projected target for the upward move is located at 0.6000. Today’s NZDUSD trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order at 0.5900.

    The news backdrop for NZDUSD shows a moderate bias in favour of buyers – 52% vs 48%. The trade appears moderately attractive in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio. The first target at 0.6000 offers upside potential of 100 pips, while the second target at 0.6025 increases the potential profit to 125 pips. The stop-loss at 0.5850 limits the risk to 50 pips, corresponding to an approximate risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2.0 for the first target and 1:2.5 for the second.

    Trading plan

    • Entry point: 0.5900
    • Target 1: 0.6000
    • Target 2: 0.6025
    • Stop-Loss: 0.5850

    Explore More Trade Ideas

    GBPJPY trade idea

    GBPJPY analysis shows that the medium-term bias for the pair remains bullish, despite signs of short-term momentum cooling. The current price structure does not indicate a break in the bullish scenario; rather, it suggests a correction before another attempt higher. That is why buying at current levels looks less attractive in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio, while a decline towards the 214.70 area provides a more comfortable entry point. The support level is located at 214.70, and the baseline scenario suggests buying on dips. Today’s GBPJPY trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order at 214.70.

    The news backdrop for GBPJPY shows a slight bias in favour of sellers – 53% vs 47%, but the technical picture still suggests continued growth after the correction. The trade looks attractive in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio. The first target at 215.90 offers upside potential of 120 pips, while the second target at 216.20 increases the potential profit to 150 pips. The stop-loss at 214.40 limits the risk to 30 pips, resulting in an approximate risk-to-reward ratio of 1:4.0 for the first target and 1:5.0 for the second.

    Trading plan

    • Entry point: 214.70
    • Target 1: 215.90
    • Target 2: 216.20
    • Stop-Loss: 214.40

    Explore More Trade Ideas

    EURUSD trade idea

    EURUSD price action analysis shows that the medium-term bias for the pair remains bullish. The current technical picture does not indicate a trend reversal; instead, it suggests a local correction before another attempt to move higher. The support level is located at 1.1740, and this area is considered the preferred zone for buying on dips. Against this backdrop, today’s EURUSD trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order at 1.1740.

    The news backdrop for EURUSD shows a slight bias in favour of sellers – 51% vs 49%, but the technical picture still suggests that the uptrend could resume following a correction. The trade appears attractive in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio. The first target at 1.1840 offers upside potential of 100 pips, while the second target at 1.1865 increases the potential profit to 125 pips. The stop-loss at 1.1715 limits the risk to 25 pips, resulting in an approximate risk-to-reward ratio of 1:4.0 for the first target and 1:5.0 for the second.

    Trading plan

    • Entry point: 1.1740
    • Target 1: 1.1840
    • Target 2: 1.1865
    • Stop-Loss: 1.1715

    Explore More Trade Ideas

    Editors’ picks

    EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

    This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

    Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

    Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.
    Delta Air Lines – stock forecast for 2026 amid rising fuel prices

    Posted on: Apr 16 2026

    Delta Air Lines has exceeded earnings expectations and issued a strong outlook for Q2 of the 2026 financial year, but rising fuel prices are limiting optimism. The base scenario assumes a test of the 65 USD level, with potential upside towards 85 USD, provided demand for air travel remains strong.

    Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) released Q1 2026 results that exceeded market expectations. Revenue rose to 14.2 billion USD, the operating margin reached 4.6%, and adjusted earnings per share came in at 0.64 USD, compared with market expectations of around 0.57 USD.

    The key driver behind the strong results was resilient demand for premium travel, corporate bookings, and loyalty programs, which enabled the company to deliver record revenue for the March quarter. At the same time, pressure on profitability persisted. Fuel costs increased, and the company specifically noted that the external environment for the airline sector remains challenging.

    For Q2 2026, the company expects revenue growth of 10–13% year-on-year, an operating margin in the range of 6–8%, and adjusted earnings per share of 1.00–1.50 USD.

    The report was initially well received by investors, as reflected in an 11% jump in DAL shares at the open. However, the risk of rising fuel costs and the resulting pressure on profitability cooled sentiment, leading to a subsequent decline in the share price.

    This article examines Delta Air Lines, outlines the key sources of its revenue, summarises the company’s quarterly performance, and presents expectations for the next reporting period. It also includes a technical analysis of DAL, which forms the basis for a forecast for Delta Air Lines shares for the 2026 calendar year.

    About Delta Air Lines, Inc.

    Delta Air Lines, Inc. is one of the largest airlines in the US. The company was founded in 1925 as Huff Daland Dusters in Macon, Georgia, and the Delta brand was introduced in 1928 as Delta Air Service. It has operated under the name Delta Air Lines, Inc. since 1945.

    Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, Delta provides passenger and cargo air transport services and operates related segments, including the SkyMiles loyalty program and aircraft maintenance services.

    Delta Air Lines shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker DAL. Following its restructuring, the company returned to the New York Stock Exchange in 2007.

    Image of the company name Delta Air Lines, Inc.

    Delta Air Lines, Inc. Q1 2026 financial results

    On 8 April, Delta Air Lines released its Q1 2026 results for the quarter ended 31 March 2026. Below are the key figures:

    • Revenue: 14.20 billion USD (+10%)
    • Net income (non-GAAP): 423 million USD (+45%)
    • Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 0.64 USD (+42%)
    • Operating margin: 4.6% (+10 basis points)

    Revenue by segment:

    • Passenger: 12.30 billion USD (+7%)
    • Cargo: 226 million USD (+9%)
    • Other: 3.33 billion USD (+41%)

    Delta Air Lines delivered record revenue for the March quarter of 14.2 billion USD and adjusted earnings per share of 0.64 USD, compared with a consensus estimate of 0.57 USD.

    Delta reported strong demand in both corporate and leisure segments, with premium, corporate, and loyalty segments acting as key growth drivers. Premium revenue increased by 14% year-on-year, loyalty and related revenues rose by 13%, while remuneration from American Express exceeded 2 billion USD, up 10%.

    However, there were also negative factors. Fuel expenses rose by 8% year-on-year, the average fuel price increased by 7%, and non-fuel unit costs grew by 6%. In other words, demand remained strong, but rising costs offset some of this effect. This is why, on a GAAP basis, the picture appears significantly weaker: the company reported a loss per share of -0.44 USD, while on an adjusted basis, the quarter remained profitable.

    For Q2 2026, Delta expects revenue growth of 10–13%, an operating margin of 6–8%, and EPS in the range of 1.00–1.50 USD. This guidance indicates that demand remains strong and that the company is experiencing solid momentum in its business.

    Analysis of key valuation multiples for Delta Air Lines, Inc.

    Below are the key valuation multiples for Delta Air Lines, Inc,. based on Q1 2026 results, calculated using a share price of 68 USD.

    Multiple What it indicates Value Comment
    P/E (TTM) Price paid for 1 USD of earnings over the past 12 months 9.94 ⬤ Valuation on an earnings basis appears attractive, provided the company maintains its current level of profitability
    P/S (TTM) Price paid for 1 USD of annual revenue 0.68 ⬤ On a revenue basis, the stock is valued relatively low
    EV/Sales (TTM) Enterprise value to sales, accounting for debt 0.82 ⬤ This represents a comfortable level for a cyclical business
    P/FCF (TTM) Price paid for 1 USD of free cash flow 9.78 ⬤ Cash flow is valued at a reasonable level
    FCF Yield (TTM) Free cash flow yield to shareholders 10.22% ⬤ Yield is high
    EV/EBITDA (TTM) Enterprise value to operating profit before depreciation and amortisation 6.51 ⬤ On an EBITDA basis, the stock appears fairly attractive for investors
    EV/EBIT (TTM) Enterprise value to operating profit 9.31 ⬤ On an operating profit basis, valuation also appears attractive
    P/B Price to book value 2.18 ⬤ On a book value basis, valuation is acceptable
    Forward P/E Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio 10.25 ⬤ If earnings forecasts are maintained, valuation appears attractive
    Net Debt/EBITDA Debt burden relative to EBITDA 1.11 ⬤ Leverage remains under control
    Interest Coverage (TTM) Ability to cover interest expenses with operating profit 8.84 ⬤ Interest coverage is strong

    Most key valuation metrics remain at levels that suggest the stock may offer upside potential, provided the company maintains resilient demand, favourable ticket pricing, and strong cash flow. In particular, a P/E below 10, EV/EBITDA of around 6.5, and an FCF yield above 10% stand out. This indicates that the current valuation does not appear overstretched, and the market is not yet pricing in an overly optimistic scenario.

    At the same time, it is important to consider the nature of the business. Airlines are highly dependent on fuel prices, economic conditions, and overall demand for air travel, meaning that even low multiples do not make the stock defensive. For Delta, this factor is particularly relevant, as the company has already reported an increase in fuel expenses of more than 2 billion USD.

    Overall, Delta shares appear inexpensive across several metrics, but this valuation is sensitive to external conditions.

    Expert forecasts for Delta Air Lines, Inc. stock

    • *Barchart*: 22 of 24 analysts assigned a Strong Buy rating to Delta Air Lines shares, 1 assigned a Moderate Buy rating, and 1 assigned a Strong Sell rating. The upper price target is 90 USD, and the lower bound is 70 USD.
    • *MarketBeat*: 23 of 25 analysts assigned a Buy rating to the stock, 1 assigned a Hold rating, and 1 assigned a Sell rating. The upper price target is 90 USD, and the lower bound is 65 USD.
    • *TipRanks*: 17 of 18 analysts assigned a Buy rating to the stock, and 1 assigned a Hold rating. The upper price target is 90 USD, and the lower bound is 70 USD.
    • *Stock Analysis*: 11 of 19 analysts assigned a Strong Buy rating to Delta Air Lines shares, and 8 assigned a Buy rating. The upper price target is 90 USD, and the lower bound is 70 USD.
    Expert forecasts for Delta Air Lines, Inc. stock for 2026

    Delta Air Lines, Inc. stock price forecast for 2026

    Delta Air Lines shares are trading above the 200-day moving average, suggesting an overall upward trend. However, the Stochastic indicator has reached overbought territory, signalling the need for a correction before the next upward move.

    Based on the current price dynamics of Delta Air Lines shares, the possible scenarios for 2026 are as follows:

    The base case forecast for Delta Air Lines shares assumes a test of support at 65 USD. Under this scenario, the Stochastic indicator would exit overbought territory and, if prices consolidate near support, move towards the oversold zone. A rebound from the 65 USD level would signal a resumption of the upward trend, with the next target at 85 USD. This scenario is supported by the start of the holiday season, when demand for air travel typically increases, which could help the company deliver strong results for Q2 2026.

    The alternative forecast for Delta Air Lines stock assumes a break below support at 61 USD. In this case, the 200-day moving average would also be breached, signalling the end of the upward trend. Under this scenario, DAL shares could decline towards support at 45 USD.

    This scenario would become more likely in the event of a further increase in fuel prices due to an escalation in the Middle East, as this would raise the airline’s costs and put pressure on its profitability.

    Delta Air Lines, Inc. stock analysis and forecast for 2026

    Risks of investing in Delta Air Lines, Inc. stock

    The key risks associated with investing in Delta Air Lines shares are outlined below:

    • Fuel price risk. Against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, this remains the primary risk for Delta. The company expects jet fuel prices of around 4.30 USD per gallon in Q2 2026, while the increase in fuel expenses compared with the previous year could exceed 2 billion USD, which is why management has not updated its full-year guidance.
    • Demand risk. Delta has already been increasing fares and baggage fees to offset 40–50% of the additional fuel costs. If economic conditions weaken or passengers become more price-sensitive, margins could come under pressure.
    • High capital intensity and still elevated leverage. Delta’s balance sheet has improved, but the business remains capital-intensive. In Q1 2026, the company reported 13.5 billion USD in adjusted net debt, spent 1.2 billion USD on capital expenditure, and allocated 1.6 billion USD to debt and lease repayments. This is not a critical situation, but in a weaker cycle, such a business typically becomes more dependent on cash flow.

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