News

Trump threatened to decertify Canadian aircraft and impose a 50% tariff, accusing Canada of unfairly blocking certification of Gulfstream business jets.

Summary:

• President Donald Trump accused Canada of unfairly blocking certification of Gulfstream jets.

• Trump said the US would decertify Canadian-made aircraft, including Bombardier models, in response.

• He threatened a 50% tariff on all aircraft sold into the US from Canada if the issue is not resolved.

• The dispute centres on certification approvals rather than safety findings.

• The move raises fresh trade and political risk for the North American aerospace sector.

US President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with Canada after accusing Ottawa of unfairly blocking the certification of US-made Gulfstream business jets, threatening retaliatory measures that could significantly disrupt the North American aircraft market.

In a statement, Trump said Canada had “wrongfully, illegally, and steadfastly refused” to certify the Gulfstream 500, 600, 700 and 800 aircraft, which he described as among the most advanced business jets ever produced. He argued that Canada’s certification process effectively prohibits the sale of Gulfstream aircraft in the Canadian market, disadvantaging a “great American company.”

In response, Trump said the US would move to decertify Canadian-made aircraft, including Bombardier Global Express jets, until Gulfstream models are fully certified in Canada. He also warned that if the situation is not “immediately corrected,” the US would impose a 50% tariff on all aircraft sold into the United States from Canada.

The dispute centres on regulatory certification rather than safety concerns, but it risks spilling into a broader trade confrontation. Certification approvals are critical for aircraft manufacturers, determining whether planes can be sold, operated, or registered in foreign markets. Any disruption can have major implications for deliveries, order books and long-term customer relationships.

Canada is home to Bombardier, a major global producer of business jets, while Gulfstream Aerospace is one of the US’s flagship aerospace exporters. A tit-for-tat escalation could therefore affect investment, employment and supply chains on both sides of the border.

The comments also revive memories of past US–Canada trade disputes, including tensions over aerospace subsidies and manufacturing competitiveness. While no immediate policy action has yet been announced, Trump’s remarks signal a willingness to use tariffs and regulatory leverage as negotiating tools.

For markets, the episode adds political and trade uncertainty to an already sensitive sector, with aerospace stocks and cross-border investment potentially vulnerable if the dispute hardens into formal trade restrictions.

The US 500 is recovering but remains in a downtrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US services PMI for December came in at 52.5
• Market impact: the data is moderately positive for the equity market

US 500 fundamental analysis

The services PMI index reflects how companies assess current business conditions, including demand, order volumes, employment, and overall activity dynamics. The 50 level separates expansion from contraction, so a reading of 52.5 indicates that the US services sector continues to expand. This is important for the equity market because services account for a large share of the US economy and indirectly influence revenue and profit expectations for most public companies and interest rate expectations.

For the US 500 index, this suggests that strong upward momentum from this release alone is unlikely, and the baseline reaction is closer to neutral or slightly negative if the market was expecting a stronger reading ahead of the publication. If market participants conclude that growth in services is sustainable and inflationary pressures may persist, bond yields could rise, which would typically have a restraining effect on the US 500. If, however, the focus is on the fact that the indicator did not exceed the forecast and does not strengthen the case for a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy, this will negatively affect the stock market.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index has formed a support level at 6,790.0 and a resistance level at 6,985.0. The index is in a corrective uptrend, with the potential upside target around 7,085.0.

The US 500 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 6,790.0 support level could send the index down to 6,725.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 6,985.0 resistance level could boost the index to 7,085.0

Summary

The latest services PMI release points to continued moderate growth in the US economy, but without improvement and slightly below expectations. For the US 500, this is typically a neutral signal with a slight negative bias in the near term, while the final impact depends on the reaction of the bond market and any reassessment of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate path. With such a small deviation from the forecast, a limited market response is most likely. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index may rise to 7,085.0.

Open Account

The EU signalled progress on a Ukraine recovery framework while flagging greater Arctic security investment and readiness for potential trade tensions.

Summary:

• EU close to unified prosperity framework with US and Ukraine

• Deal aims to coordinate funding for Ukraine’s recovery

• Europe to step up focus on Arctic security and cooperation

• Defence spending surge to support Arctic-ready capabilities

• EU says it is prepared if new tariffs are imposed

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Union is close to reaching a unified agreement with the United States and Ukraine on a single prosperity framework aimed at supporting Ukraine’s long-term recovery, signalling progress toward closer transatlantic coordination on post-war reconstruction.

Speaking at a press conference, von der Leyen said negotiations are advancing toward a common structure that would align European and US financial support with Ukraine’s reform and rebuilding priorities. A unified framework would help streamline funding, reduce duplication, and provide greater certainty for private-sector investment as Ukraine transitions from emergency support toward reconstruction and economic normalisation.

Alongside the Ukraine recovery initiative, von der Leyen outlined a broader push to strengthen Europe’s security posture in the Arctic. She said the EU will continue to deepen its engagement on Arctic security, including stepped-up investment in Greenland and increased cooperation with regional partners. The comments come amid rising geopolitical competition in the Arctic, driven by climate change, expanding shipping routes and heightened strategic interest from major powers.

Von der Leyen said Europe should make greater use of its expanding defence budgets to invest in Arctic-ready capabilities, including equipment suited to extreme weather, surveillance, and infrastructure resilience. She framed the defence spending surge across Europe as an opportunity not only to bolster conventional security but also to address emerging vulnerabilities in northern regions.

On trade, the Commission President said Europe remains well prepared should new tariffs be imposed, underlining that the bloc has measures ready to respond if necessary. While she did not outline specific countermeasures, the remarks signal continued sensitivity around global trade tensions and the potential spillover into European growth and industrial policy.

Taken together, the comments highlight a strategic effort by the European Union to link security, economic resilience and geopolitical positioning. Progress on a joint prosperity framework for Ukraine underscores the EU’s intent to anchor reconstruction within a transatlantic framework, while the renewed focus on Arctic investment reflects a widening definition of European security that extends beyond traditional theatres. The messaging points to a more integrated approach to defence, trade preparedness and long-term economic strategy.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7951; (P) 0.7987; (R1) 0.8012; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Firm break of 0.7860 support will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.7828 low. Next target will be 0.7382 projection level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long […]

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Introduction to GBPUSD The Great British Pound vs US Dollar currency pair, affectionately known in the trading community as “Cable,” represents one of the oldest and most liquid financial instruments in the world. The nickname originates from the 19th-century transatlantic telegraph cables that first enabled the transmission of exchange rates between London and New York. […]

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