Key Points:

• Heightened geopolitical uncertainty centred on Venezuela and Iran is reinforcing demand for precious metals and keeping a risk premium embedded in crude oil.
• Annual commodity index rebalancing is a key short-term driver, adding mechanical selling in gold and silver and heavy buying interest in cocoa, increasing near-term volatility without changing underlying fundamentals.
• Industrial metals remain supported by structural electrification demand, but rising copper inventories and softer Chinese buying raise the risk of consolidation after last year’s 41% rally.
• Energy is split between oil, which is supported by disruption risk and light positioning, and US natural gas, which is under pressure from unseasonably warm weather and weak heating demand.

Overall, the start of 2026 has delivered a familiar mix: strong metals driven by geopolitics, structural demand and financial flows, set against an energy market split between disruption risk and supply comfort. The key challenge is to separate short-term noise from the longer-term signals shaping demand for energy, metals and raw materials.

Broad-based gains recorded in first week of trading

The year has opened with a heightened level of geopolitical uncertainty, and the commodities complex is responding accordingly. Developments in Venezuela and Iran have been front and center, with markets forced to reassess both near-term supply risks and longer-term production potential. In Venezuela, political upheaval and renewed US involvement have for shifted already reduced flows of oil towards the US at the expense of China. A big challenge lies ahead in getting the country's energy sector back on its feet after years of underinvestment and sanctions. In Iran, escalating unrest and tighter state control of information have revived concerns about the reliability of Middle Eastern supply, adding a layer of risk premium across energy markets. Together, these events have helped underpin prices in several commodities, even as global macro signals remain mixed.

The BCOM Total Return Index is up 2.3% in the first week of trading, with all but two of the 24 markets trading higher. Gains are led by precious and industrial metals and broad advances in agriculture, more than offsetting a near 14% slump in US natural gas driven by unusually mild winter weather. Top performers, as per the table include platinum, silver, aluminum, Arabica coffee, and copper.

Precious metals: safe haven demand meets index flows

Precious metals have been the clear leaders so far. Gold, silver and platinum have all started the year strongly, reflecting a mix of geopolitical hedging, financial flows and structural investment themes. Rising geopolitical risk linked to Venezuela and Iran has revived safe-haven demand for gold, while silver has benefited both from its monetary role and its industrial link to electrification and solar demand. Platinum, which is not part of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, has been one of the top performers.

At the same time, precious metals are being influenced by an important technical factor: the annual rebalancing of major commodity indices. After outsized gains in gold and especially silver during 2025, index-tracking funds are required to trim their exposure to these outperformers and reallocate toward underweighted sectors. These futures flows are mechanical and price-insensitive, but they can still create significant short-term volatility. How gold and silver behave during this five-day rebalancing window will be an important test of the underlying strength and whether deeper physical and investment demand is strong enough to absorb the selling.

Positioning data from the latest Commitments of Traders report, which has now resumed after the US reporting delays, adds useful context. In gold, net long positions held by leveraged funds were reduced during the second half of 2025, but this largely reflected rising prices forcing traders to scale back exposure to keep risk constant, rather than a loss of conviction. In crude oil, by contrast, speculative length ended 2025 at one of the weakest year-end levels on record, suggesting that oil is far from crowded on the long side even as geopolitical risk is creeping back into prices.

Industrial metals: copper leads but inventories test the rally

Industrial metals have also had a strong start to the year, led by copper and aluminium. Copper in particular has been supported by a powerful combination of structural and short-term factors, but recent inventory data raises the question of whether a short-term peak may be forming. Stocks monitored by the three major futures exchanges have risen to a fresh eight-year high of 789 kt, with Shanghai inventories up 35 kt to 181 kt and ongoing tariff-driven shipments lifting COMEX stocks by 13.7 kt to 467 kt, leaving close to 60% of all visible exchange stocks held in the US.

Copper prices still hit a fresh record high earlier this week, with prices on the London Metal Exchange reaching USD 13,390, almost three times the 2020 Covid nadir. This comes despite reports that Chinese industrial users are scaling back purchases as they struggle to pass higher costs on to manufacturers, a mix that points to softer near-term demand and rising inventories after a 41% rally over the past year. Longer term, however, electrification, grid expansion and data centre build-out, combined with years of underinvestment, declining ore grades and limited project pipelines, mean the global copper balance remains structurally tight, even if the path higher is unlikely to be a straight line. 

Energy: oil caught between disruption risk and surplus, gas hit by warm weather

US natural gas has been the weakest performer in the entire commodity complex, down close to 10% year to date as mild winter temperatures have slashed heating demand and left storage levels comfortable. In contrast, crude oil prices are modestly higher, reflecting a tug of war between near-term supply risks and medium-term surplus concerns. The situation in Venezuela has brought the risk of immediate production and export losses into focus, even as the market debates whether a future political transition could eventually unlock higher output. Any meaningful recovery in Venezuelan production would require years of investment and billions of dollars in capital, meaning that the barrels the market is worrying about losing today cannot easily be replaced tomorrow.

Iran adds another layer of uncertainty. While exports have so far continued, rising unrest and the potential for tighter enforcement of sanctions or internal disruption keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices. At the same time, the broader oil market remains well supplied, with non-OPEC production growing and inventories adequate, which helps explain why oil has not broken decisively higher despite the headlines. This leaves crude prices stuck in a stalemate between disruption risk and surplus narratives. At the same time, traders remain poorly positioned for a rebound, while the ongoing commodity index rebalancing will add a layer of mechanical buying. Technically, resistance sits just below USD 59 in WTI and USD 63 in Brent, with a clear break above these levels potentially triggering momentum- and short‑covering‑led extensions. 

Energy markets will be watching closely for any concrete Venezuelan developments following meetings between Trump and US energy executives, as well as how to reconcile calls for lower prices with producers’ warnings that aggressive price pressure could curb domestic shale output.

Agriculture and softs: broad gains with cocoa in the spotlight

Agricultural and soft commodities have also contributed positively to the early-year performance. Coffee has rallied on weather risk in Brazil and a supportive currency backdrop, while wheat found support as dry weather fuelled concerns about crop conditions in the key U.S. while soybeans have found support from regional supply concerns and  continued purchases from China the world's top importer after a late-October trade truce with Washington.

Cocoa has received heightened attention after it was confirmed it will return to the Bloomberg Commodity Index for the first time in decades with a 1.71% weighting, triggering a wave of mechanical, non‑fundamental and technically driven demand. Goldman Sachs estimates index‑related buying at around 29,000 lots, equivalent to 23% of current open interest and roughly 1.75 times average daily volume. Whether cocoa extends further will depend on how much of this demand has already been discounted, with current technical levels offering limited incentive to initiate fresh exposure.

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Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

The Venezuela oil shock - Trading the reconstruction without chasing the hype

Key takeaways

• The U.S. seizure of Venezuelan leadership over the weekend has pushed Venezuela back into the centre of global energy geopolitics, with oil markets the primary transmission channel.
• Much of the initial reaction is already reflected in options pricing, particularly in single energy stocks, raising the risk of overpaying for volatility.
• Options allow investors to position for both short-term uncertainty and long-term reconstruction without relying on directional forecasts.

The setup: why this headline matters for markets

The weekend news surrounding Venezuela is politically complex, but markets tend to simplify geopolitical shocks. In this case, the first and most direct lens is energy. Venezuela sits on some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, yet years of underinvestment, sanctions and operational decay have left production far below potential. Any credible path towards normalisation or reconstruction therefore has implications for oil supply, energy equities and broader inflation dynamics.

What is notable so far is not panic, but positioning. Equity markets have not repriced aggressively, while volatility indicators suggest investors are paying selectively for protection rather than rushing for it. This is often the environment where options premiums move faster than realised price action, especially in headline-sensitive stocks.

The volatility trap: when news is obvious, options are not cheap

When geopolitical news breaks over a weekend, the instinctive trade at the open is often to buy calls in the perceived winners. In energy, that typically means large integrated oil companies or oil services firms linked to reconstruction narratives. The problem is that this demand tends to inflate implied volatility just as uncertainty peaks.

Buying naked calls in this environment means paying for both direction and volatility. If prices move less than feared, or if volatility fades once the headline risk stabilises, call buyers can lose even if the underlying moves in the right direction. This is a classic implied-versus-realised volatility mismatch.

The core question for investors should therefore not be “which stock benefits?”, but “how do I express the view without renting volatility at its most expensive?”

What the options tape is saying right now

Looking beyond headlines, Monday’s (05/01) options flow adds useful colour to how the market is positioning for the Venezuela shock.

In Chevron, call activity stood out where traded volume exceeded existing open interest, a pattern typically associated with new upside risk being initiated rather than positions being closed. That fits with the narrative of Chevron as the most direct operational beneficiary should access and exports improve.

At the same time, the tape showed investors paying for protection at the sector level. A large, long-dated put in XLE traded with volume greater than open interest, signalling fresh demand for downside convexity in the broader energy complex. This kind of positioning often appears when investors want exposure to a theme, but remain uncomfortable with political, regulatory or execution risk.

ConocoPhillips flow leaned more defensive. Multiple put trades printed in a clustered pattern across strikes and timestamps, consistent with a structured position such as a vertical spread. While some data fields in the raw feed warrant caution, the overall signal points to hedging rather than outright bearish speculation.

Taken together, the message from the options market is not a one-way bet. The flow reflects opportunity paired with insurance. Participants are engaging with the reconstruction narrative, but they are not trusting the path to be smooth.

A helicopter view of the opportunity set

Rather than focusing on a single narrative, it is useful to break the Venezuela shock into three market channels:

1. Sector repricing: Energy as a whole may reprice if supply expectations shift.
2. Reconstruction winners: Oilfield services and operators positioned for infrastructure rebuilds.
3. Geopolitical insurance: Assets such as gold that absorb tail-risk demand if tensions widen.

Options offer different tools for each channel, depending on whether the objective is participation, income or protection.

Before turning to the playbooks below, it is important to frame them correctly. The following examples are high-level illustrations of how options can be used to express different views on the same macro event. They are intended as thought-starters, not ready-made trades. Each structure highlights a way of thinking about uncertainty, time and risk, but the precise implementation, sizing and risk management must be determined by the individual investor based on their own research, objectives and constraints. Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions. 

Playbook 1: the sector proxy (XLE)

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is one of the most widely used exchange-traded funds for gaining exposure to the U.S. energy sector. It holds a diversified basket of large-cap energy companies, including integrated oil majors, exploration and production firms, and energy infrastructure players.

Its largest constituents include Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, which means the fund naturally captures much of the market’s focus on Venezuela-linked narratives without relying on a single company outcome. At the same time, diversification across the sector helps dampen stock-specific headline risk.

From an options perspective, sector ETFs often trade with lower implied volatility than individual stocks during news-driven episodes. This can make them a more efficient entry point when single-name options look stretched.

Options lens (participation with guardrails):

• Potential: A call debit spread can provide upside participation with a lower premium outlay than buying a naked call, because you finance part of the purchase by selling a higher strike.
• Potential: Using XLE rather than a single stock can reduce idiosyncratic risk (one company headline, one earnings report, one policy twist) while still expressing the broader “energy repricing” theme.
• Potential: Spreads naturally reduce sensitivity to implied volatility (vega) versus outright long calls, which can matter if implied volatility fades once the headline intensity cools.

Key risks and trade-offs:

• Capped upside: If energy rallies sharply, the short call limits gains beyond the upper strike. You are choosing cost control over unlimited upside.
• Direction still matters: A spread is still a bullish position. If XLE chops sideways or sells off, time decay and a lower underlying can erode the spread’s value.
• Event risk remains: Diversification does not remove sector shocks. A broad oil price drop, policy surprise, or recessionary scare can hit the whole basket.
• Execution risk: Bid–ask spreads can widen during volatile sessions, and early exits may be more expensive than expected.

This approach suits investors looking for exposure rather than precision.

Playbook 2: getting paid to wait (SLB, HAL)

Oilfield services companies sit at the heart of any reconstruction narrative. Unlike oil producers, they do not own reserves; instead, they provide the technical expertise, equipment and project execution needed to bring production capacity back online.

SLB (Schlumberger) is the world’s largest oilfield services company, with global exposure across drilling, reservoir management and production services. It has historically played a central role in rebuilding and expanding oil infrastructure in regions emerging from underinvestment.

Halliburton is another major oilfield services provider, particularly strong in drilling, completion and well stimulation services. Its business tends to be highly sensitive to increases in upstream capital expenditure, making it a leveraged way to express a recovery in oil investment.

Rebuilding oil infrastructure is not a weekly trade. These companies may benefit if investment flows return, but their share prices are likely to remain volatile as the narrative evolves and timelines remain uncertain.

For investors comfortable owning these stocks, elevated implied volatility can be an opportunity rather than a cost.

Options lens (income with discipline):

• Potential: Selling puts allows investors to monetise elevated implied volatility, effectively getting paid to wait while defining a price level at which they would be comfortable owning the shares. In a headline-driven environment, this can be a more patient way to engage than chasing upside.
• Potential: Put spreads retain a similar income-oriented profile but cap downside risk, which can be appropriate when timelines for reconstruction and capital spending remain uncertain.
• Potential: Elevated volatility in oilfield services stocks often reflects uncertainty rather than immediate fundamentals, creating opportunities for investors who are prepared to absorb short-term noise.

Key risks and trade-offs:

• Downside exposure: Short puts are inherently bullish. If sentiment turns sharply on adverse headlines, policy reversals or delays in investment, losses can accelerate.
• Assignment risk: Investors must be willing and able to own the underlying shares if assigned, particularly during volatile markets when prices can gap lower.
• Volatility persistence: Implied volatility can remain elevated longer than expected, and price swings can overwhelm collected premium.
• Execution and liquidity: Wide bid–ask spreads and fast price moves can complicate adjustments or exits, especially during news-heavy sessions.

This shifts the mindset from chasing price momentum to harvesting uncertainty.

Playbook 3: the long game (CVX, COP)

Large integrated oil companies are structurally better positioned for a multi‑year reconstruction process than smaller, more leveraged players. Their balance sheets, operational scale and political reach matter when capital investment decisions stretch across years rather than quarters.

Chevron is currently the only major U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela. This gives it direct exposure to any improvement in operating conditions or export capacity, but also makes it a focal point for political and regulatory risk.

ConocoPhillips no longer operates in Venezuela but remains economically linked through long‑running compensation and arbitration claims related to past expropriations. Any resolution mechanism, whether financial or asset‑based, would be a longer‑dated optionality rather than an immediate catalyst.

If Venezuela’s oil sector is rebuilt, the process will take years rather than weeks. Buying equity outright ties up capital and exposes investors to short‑term noise driven by headlines.

Options lens (owning the cycle, managing the noise):

• Potential: Long-dated, deep in-the-money calls can act as stock replacements, providing high delta exposure to a multi-year reconstruction theme while requiring less upfront capital than outright share ownership.
• Potential: Because these options contain relatively little extrinsic value, they are less sensitive to short-term implied volatility swings and headline-driven noise than near-dated calls.
• Potential: Selling shorter-dated calls against the long position can help generate income when volatility is elevated, potentially offsetting part of the time decay on the long-dated option.

Key risks and trade-offs:

• Time and thesis risk: Even long-dated options decay over time. If reconstruction timelines slip materially or the long-term thesis weakens, option values can erode despite a stable share price.
• Active management required: Diagonal or covered-style structures require monitoring. Short calls introduce assignment risk, particularly around dividend dates, and may need to be rolled during sharp rallies.
• Conditional upside limitation: Upside is only capped if an investor chooses to sell shorter-dated calls against the long position. Without an income overlay, long-dated calls retain uncapped upside, but at the cost of higher exposure to time decay and volatility changes.
• Policy and regulatory risk: Integrated oil companies remain exposed to political decisions, sanctions regimes and regulatory shifts that can alter long-term economics.

The key idea is to buy time, not excitement.

The hedge: why gold still matters (GLD)

Even if energy markets ultimately focus on supply potential, geopolitical shocks tend to increase demand for portfolio insurance. Gold often absorbs this demand as investors rebalance risk rather than exit markets entirely.

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF offers a liquid and widely used proxy for gold exposure. Its options market is deep enough to support both hedging and tactical positioning without relying on futures access.

For portfolios that add energy exposure in response to the Venezuela narrative, gold can serve as a counterweight if geopolitical tensions widen or if risk sentiment deteriorates unexpectedly.

Options lens (insurance, not a forecast):

• Potential: Call spreads on GLD can offer convex upside if geopolitical risk intensifies, while keeping premium outlay limited. This can be an efficient way to add insurance without materially increasing portfolio volatility or capital usage.
• Potential: Because gold often responds to changes in risk perception rather than economic growth, GLD options can diversify portfolio exposures that are otherwise tilted toward cyclical assets such as energy equities.
• Potential: Using spreads rather than outright calls reduces sensitivity to implied volatility, which can already be elevated during geopolitical stress.

Key risks and trade-offs:

• No guaranteed hedge: Gold does not move in a linear or stable relationship with equities or oil. In some environments, correlations can weaken or even reverse, reducing hedging effectiveness.
• Volatility compression risk: If geopolitical tensions ease or markets quickly refocus on growth and rates, implied volatility in gold options can fall, leading to losses even without adverse price moves.
• Opportunity cost: Premium spent on insurance detracts from returns if risk events do not materialise. This is the inherent cost of protection.
• Timing risk: Options-based hedges are sensitive to expiry selection. Protection that expires too soon may fail to cover a drawn-out period of uncertainty.

Putting it together

The Venezuela headline is a reminder that options are less about predicting outcomes and more about managing uncertainty. When news is loud, premiums tend to be expensive. The edge lies in structuring exposure so that time and volatility work with you, not against you.

Before placing any trade, investors should check implied volatility levels, term structure and liquidity. In fast-moving geopolitical stories, patience is often the most valuable position.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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