EUR/USD Daily Forecast: Bullish Wave Faces Resistance

Introduction to EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair, often nicknamed “Fiber,” represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar, making it the most traded forex pair globally. It reflects the economic dynamics between the Eurozone and the United States, two of the world’s largest economies. Understanding EUR/USD price movements is critical for forex traders seeking to capitalize on macroeconomic trends and technical setups. This daily analysis provides insights into the pair’s current behavior and potential future movements.

EUR/USD Market Overview

The EUR/USD pair is currently navigating a volatile global trend, maintaining a bullish bias after a strong upward move, though recent economic data suggests potential headwinds. On April 23, 2025, French and German Flash Manufacturing PMIs disappointed, with France at 47.9 (below the expected 48.5) and Germany at 47.5 (below 48.3), signaling ongoing contraction in manufacturing. Similarly, French and German Flash Services PMIs weakened to 47.7 and 50.3, respectively, indicating softer service sector activity. The Eurozone’s overall Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.4, and Services PMI to 50.4, both missing forecasts. Meanwhile, upcoming US Flash PMIs (Manufacturing at 49.0, Services at 52.8) and FOMC member speeches from Kugler, Goolsbee, and Waller could sway the USD’s strength, potentially pressuring EUR/USD if US data outperforms or Fed rhetoric leans hawkish. The Eurozone’s trade balance improved to 14.9B, offering some support, but the pair’s trajectory hinges on US economic signals and ECB policy expectations tomorrow.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the daily (D1) chart, EUR/USD exhibits a strong bullish wave, but technical indicators signal caution as overbuying emerges. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic oscillators are in overbought territory, suggesting potential exhaustion of upward momentum. The price recently surged but faces resistance near the 1.414 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.16400, with another critical resistance at 1.5769 that could trigger a reversal. A bearish wave may target support levels at 1.12655 and 1.01000 if the price fails to break higher. Traders should monitor price action around these key levels, as a rejection at resistance combined with overbought signals could confirm a downward correction.

Final Words About EUR vs USD

The EUR/USD pair remains at a critical juncture, with recent bullish momentum tempered by overbought technical indicators and mixed Eurozone economic data. Weak PMI readings from France and Germany highlight ongoing economic challenges, potentially capping Euro strength, while upcoming US PMI data and FOMC speeches could bolster the USD if hawkish or positive. Traders should exercise caution, watching for reversals at Fibonacci resistance levels (1.16400 and 1.5769) and preparing for a possible bearish move toward 1.12655 or lower. Effective risk management is essential given the pair’s sensitivity to macroeconomic releases and central bank rhetoric. Staying informed on US and Eurozone developments will be key to navigating EUR/USD’s next moves.